毛利率提升，现金流状况良好。公司2024 年第三季度毛利率27.48%，同比+9.7pct，系高毛利的镶嵌类产品占比提升影响。第三季度销售费用率11.29%，同比+6.31pct，主要由于薪酬费用、租赁费用、广告宣传费用及电商渠道费用同比增加所致。前三季度存货周转天数123.57，同比增加32 天；前三季度实现经营性现金流净额13.15 亿元，同比增长1310%。Third-quarter earnings growth was under pressure. The company achieved revenue of 10.809 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, -13.49% year-on-year, and net profit to mother of 0.855 billion yuan, or -21.95% year-on-year, after deducting non-net profit of -20.55%.
Looking at the third quarter of a single quarter, the company's revenue was 2.612 billion yuan, and net profit to mother was 0.253 billion yuan, or -28.7% year-on-year, after deducting non-net profit of 0.252 billion yuan, or -27.23% year-on-year. Overall performance declined against the backdrop of the rapid rise in gold prices in the third quarter, suppressing demand for terminals in the industry and the enthusiasm of franchisees to pick up goods.
Offline self-operated and e-commerce businesses performed well, with a net opening of 129 stores in the first three quarters. By business, in the first three quarters, the company's self-operated offline business achieved operating income of 1.354 billion yuan, an increase of 9.77% over the previous year, accounting for 12.52% of total revenue. Among them, revenue from gold products was 1.262 billion yuan, an increase of 12.85% over the previous year. The e-commerce business achieved revenue of 1.653 billion yuan, an increase of 5.94% over the previous year, accounting for 15.29% of total revenue. The franchise business achieved revenue of 0.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.75%. In terms of store expansion, there was a net increase of 129 in the first three quarters, bringing the total number of stores to 5,235 at the end of the period.
Gross margin increased, and cash flow was good. The company's gross profit margin for the third quarter of 2024 was 27.48%, +9.7pct year-on-year, which is an effect of the increase in the share of high-margin mosaic products. The sales expense ratio for the third quarter was 11.29%, +6.31pct year on year, mainly due to the year-on-year increase in remuneration expenses, rental expenses, advertising expenses, and e-commerce channel expenses. The number of inventory turnover days in the first three quarters was 123.57, an increase of 32 days over the previous year; net operating cash flow of 1.315 billion yuan was achieved in the first three quarters, an increase of 1310% over the previous year.
Risk warning: Store expansion falls short of expectations; terminal sales fall short of expectations; competitive environment worsens investment advice: In the short term, terminal demand and franchisee enthusiasm to pick up goods have weakened. However, in the medium to long term, the gold category has the advantages of value preservation and fashion attributes, and terminal demand is still expected to be gradually released after gold prices stabilize. The company itself will continue to improve the gold product system to seize growth opportunities, and continue to expand its stores on the channel side to buck the trend and seize market share at an accelerated pace. Considering that since the fourth quarter, the still relatively high price of gold may inhibit short-term terminal demand, which may affect revenue growth in the same stores, etc., and the company accelerated the relative rigidity of expenses in the opening stage. We lowered the company's net profit to the mother in 2024-2026 to 1.183/1.325/1.435 billion yuan (previous values were 1.471/1.684/1.897 billion yuan, respectively), and 10.2/9.1/8.4 times for PE, respectively, maintaining the “better than the market” rating.
