2024Q3，公司收入和利润同比增长主要系勘探开发板块及装备制造板块增收增利所致。Q3 公司毛利率为49.1%，环比+1.5pct,且连续三个季度逐季提升；净利率为21.6%，环比-1.5pct，主要受管理费用、财务费用、所得税费等环比增加所致。Incident: On October 30, 2024, Zhongman Petroleum released its report for the third quarter of 2024. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 3.051 billion yuan, up 7% year on year, and realized net profit of 0.668 billion yuan, up 13% year on year; net profit after deduction was 0.633 billion yuan, down 6% year on year. Net cash flow from operating activities was $0.872 billion, up 7% year on year; basic earnings per share were 1.67 yuan/share, up 11% year on year.
In the third quarter of 2024, the company's revenue for a single quarter was 1.133 billion yuan, up 13% year on year, up 2% month on month; net profit for the single quarter was 0.241 billion yuan, up 42% year on year, down 6% month on month; net profit after deduction for the single quarter was 0.215 billion yuan, down 15% year on year and 13% month on month.
Comment:
2024Q3, the year-on-year increase in the company's revenue and profit was mainly due to increased revenue and profits in the exploration and development sector and equipment manufacturing sector. Q3 The company's gross margin was 49.1%, +1.5pct month-on-month, and increased quarterly for three consecutive quarters; net profit margin was 21.6%, -1.5pct month-on-month, mainly due to month-on-month increases in management expenses, financial expenses, income tax, etc.
Crude oil production continued to grow rapidly in Q3:2024Q3, the company achieved crude oil production of 0.223 million tons, +24.23% year over year and +7.63% month over month. Among them, Wensu crude oil production was 0.17 million tons, +9.18% year over month, and +5.07% month on month; tenge crude oil production was 0.053 million tons, +122.69% year on year, and +16.74% month on month.
In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total crude oil production of 0.628 million tons, +28.08% over the same period. Among them, Wenshuku and Tenge produced 0.4863 and 0.1417 million tons respectively, +12.88% and +138.15%, respectively. The company's tenge project has entered a period of rapid increase in production capacity.
Iraq's oil and gas block development and production contract was signed: In the first half of the year, the company successfully competed for development rights for Iraq's EBN block and MF block. After preliminary evaluation, the company and the three-party evaluation team predicted that the EBN block 3P oil geological reserves were about 0.464 billion tons and about 85.4 billion cubic meters of dissolved gas; the amount of original petroleum geological resources trapped in the MF block was about 1.258 billion tons, and dissolved gas was about 50.8 billion cubic meters. The longest development and production contract for the EBN block and MF block is 25 years. If the project is successfully implemented, the company expects to continue to have a positive impact on future business performance. At the same time, the company's integrated business layout is also expected to help the rapid increase in storage and production of the oil and gas block in Iraq.
Profit forecast and investment rating: We predict that the company's net profit for 2024-2026 will be 951, 10.28, and 1,239 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.5%, 8.0%, and 20.5%, and EPS of 2.06, 2.22, and 2.68 yuan/share, respectively. According to the closing price of A shares on October 30, 2024, PE is 9.86, 9.13, and 7.57 times, respectively, and PB is 2.23, 1.93, and 1.64 times, respectively. Considering that the company benefits from high crude oil prices and rapid production growth, the company is expected to continue to perform well in 2024-2026, and we maintain our “buy” rating.
Risk factors: economic fluctuations and the risk of falling oil prices; the risk that the company will launch production less than expected; economic sanctions and geopolitical risks.
