2）分渠道：24Q3 经销商渠道实现收入7.10 亿元，同比-3.4%，电商渠道实现收入0.25 亿元，同比-46.4%，出口方面实现收入0.05 亿元，同比-8.2%，直营渠道实现收入0.11 亿元，同比-14.8%。Incident: The company released its 2024 three-quarter report. 24Q1-Q3 achieved operating income of 1.938 billion yuan, net profit to mother of 0.018 billion yuan, +408.98% year on year, net profit of non-return to mother of -0.006 billion yuan, year-on-year loss of 0.034 billion yuan; 24Q3 achieved operating income of 0.759 billion yuan, -6.10% year on year, net profit of 0.047 billion yuan, year-on-year net profit of -0.62 billion yuan %, net profit not attributable to mother was 0.037 billion yuan, -6.52% year-on-year.
The 24Q3 ready-to-drink season performed well, brewing declined, and the sales team was in a state of optimization and adjustment.
1) By product: 24Q3 brewed products achieved revenue of 0.496 billion yuan, -14.9% year-on-year, while ready-to-drink products achieved revenue of 0.254 billion yuan, +17.8% year-on-year. We determined that during the 24Q3 ready-to-drink season, the company increased resources and cost investment for Meco's two major products, such as fresh fruit tea and Lanfangyuan frozen lemon tea. Freezing construction continued to advance and achieved certain results; brewed products were affected by the overall consumption environment, and 24Q3 was under pressure.
2) Channel division: 24Q3 dealer channels achieved revenue of 0.71 billion yuan, -3.4% year-on-year, e-commerce channels achieved revenue of 0.025 billion yuan, 46.4% year-on-year, export revenue of 0.005 billion yuan, -8.2% year-on-year, and direct sales channels achieved revenue of 0.011 billion yuan, or -14.8% year-on-year.
3) By region: The company continued to perform steadily in the East China market, a region with traditional advantages. In 24Q3, East China achieved revenue of 0.363 billion yuan, +4.1% over the same period last year, accounting for 48% of revenue. All other regions experienced varying degrees of decline.
In 24Q3, raw material costs declined, gross margin increased year-on-year, and profitability remained stable. The company's 24Q3 gross margin/net profit margin was 40.94%/6.22%, respectively, +2.41/+0.34pct. We determine that the decline in gross margin is related to the year-on-year decline in the cost of raw materials such as white sugar. On the cost side, the 24Q3 sales/management/R&D/finance expense ratios were 26.13%/8.06%/1.58%/-1.23%, respectively, compared with +0.23/+1.03/+0.52/+0.76pct, respectively. The cost-efficiency ratio declined due to pressure on revenue side performance.
Overall, 24Q3 has maintained a relatively stable level of profitability.
We believe that after entering the 24Q4 brewing season, the company will focus on products such as fragrant piaopiao milk tea, Meco, fresh fruit tea gift packs, etc., actively do a good job of selling and selling during the peak season through the “model market”, fight the peak season campaign, and the Spring Festival is early in '25. It is expected that dealers will actively prepare goods in advance.
Profit forecast: We expect the company to achieve operating income of 3.675/4.211/4.816 billion yuan in 2024-26, respectively, +1%/+15%/+14%, net profit to mother of 0.289/0.381/0.475 billion yuan, +3%/+32%/+24%, EPS 0.70/0.93/1.16 yuan/share, respectively, and corresponding PE is 19X/15X/12X, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: Food safety risks, the risk that the company's new product promotion falls short of expectations, and the risk of increased competition in the market.
