毛利率环比回升，降本成效显现。24Q3 公司毛利率7.2%，同环比分别-0.6/+0.2pct，降本成效显现；24Q3 公司期间费用率12.7%，同环比分别+4.7/+5.8pct，其中销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别3.8%/4.3%/6.3%/-1.7%，同比分别+1.4/+1.5/+1.8/+0.04pct，环比分别+1.4/+2.1/+2.7/-0.5pct，收入大幅下滑造成费用率被动抬升。Key points of investment
Performance summary: The company released its 2024 three-quarter report. 24Q3 achieved revenue of 9.53 billion yuan, or -36.9%/-42.7% year-on-month; net profit to mother -0.115 billion yuan, 24Q2/23Q3, 0.31/0.011 billion yuan respectively; net profit without deducting non-attributable net profit of -0.22 billion yuan, and 24Q2/23Q3, 0.18/-0.07 billion yuan respectively.
Heavy truck sales declined with the industry, and ASP was affected by product structure and industry competition. The 24Q3 company's heavy truck sales volume was 0.043 million, -7.9%/-24.68%, of which heavy truck sales were 0.034 million, -18.6%/-27.6% year over month; under the China Automobile Association caliber, the 24Q3 industry's heavy truck wholesale sales volume was 0.178 million, -18.2%/-23.0% year-on-month, respectively. The company's heavy truck sales followed the decline in the industry. According to Jiaotong Insurance, the 24Q3 industry sold 0.04 million natural gas heavy trucks, -26.9%/-37.7%, respectively. The company's natural gas heavy truck sales volume was 0.011 million, which was -40.7%/-42.2%, respectively. The company's 24Q3 medium and heavy truck ASP is estimated at 0.223 million yuan, respectively. The ASP fluctuation was mainly due to a decrease in the share of high-value natural gas heavy trucks and intense industry prices.
Gross profit margin rebounded month-on-month, and cost reduction results were evident. The 24Q3 company's gross profit margin was 7.2%, -0.6/+0.2pct, respectively, showing cost reduction results; the 24Q3 company's expense ratio was 12.7%, +4.7/+5.8pct compared to the same period, with sales/management/R&D/finance expenses rates of 3.8%/4.3%/6.3%/-1.7%, +1.4/+1.8/+0.04pct, respectively. The sharp decline in revenue caused the cost ratio to rise passively.
24Q3 performance is under pressure. We look forward to industry recovery+cost reduction and control fees+export premiums and show the company's potential performance elasticity. Affected by the decline in the industry and fierce competition, the company's 24Q3 sales volume and ASP declined, revenue and gross profit declined sharply, and expenses rose passively, causing losses in a single quarter. It is worth noting that:
1) The company's cost reduction and fee control effects are beginning to appear. The 24Q3 gross margin improved, and R&D expenses declined markedly; 2) The company's international trade company has been registered, and future export business premiums will be added, contributing to profit growth; 3) The company has obvious advantages in the field of new energy. The 24Q3 industry's electric heavy truck sales volume is 0.019 million, +156.9%/+22.4%, respectively. The company's electric heavy truck market share is 14.7%, +8.8/+7.4pct, ranking third in the industry. Looking ahead, the company is determined to increase and land will be added to the new market With increased investment in the energy sector, the dominant position is expected to be maintained. Looking forward to the future, focus on the upward elasticity of the company's profits under industry recovery+easing competition.
Profit forecast and investment rating: Considering domestic demand and heavy gas truck pressure, we lowered our profit forecast for 2024 to 2026. Net profit to mother was lowered from 1.028/1.698/2.424 billion yuan to 0.724/1.599/2.414 billion yuan, corresponding EPS for 2024 to 2026 was 0.16/0.35/0.52 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE was 49.4/22.35/14.8 times, respectively. Considering the company's potential performance elasticity under the current low base, maintaining “buying” ” Ratings.
Risk warning: The recovery of the heavy truck industry fell short of expectations; fluctuations in overseas exports exceeded expectations; prices of raw materials fluctuated sharply.
