Event Overview: On October 28, 2024, Jiuyuan Yinhai released its performance report for the third quarter of 2024. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company's total revenue was 0.668 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.84%.

After three quarters, we may usher in an inflection point in performance. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company's net profit to mother was 18.814 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 83.53%. According to single-quarter data, total revenue for the third quarter was 0.274 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.95%, and net profit to mother for the third quarter was 7.582 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 73.93%. As of September 30, 2024, the company's accounts receivable were quite large. Current accounts receivable accounted for 316.72% of net profit attributable to mother in the latest annual report.

In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved gross profit margin of 42.63%, total sales expenses, management expenses and financial expenses of 0.192 billion yuan. The three fees accounted for 28.68% of revenue, net assets of 4.02 yuan per share, up 1.45% year on year, operating cash flow per share -0.08 yuan, up 67.39% year on year, and earnings per share of 0.05 yuan, down 82.14% year on year.

The controlling shareholders' shares are to be changed, or a structural restructuring will be carried out. On October 29, the company responded on the Wind Investor Interactive Platform, saying, “The actual controller of the company, the China Institute of Engineering Physics, is currently planning matters relating to changes in the shares of the company's controlling shareholder “Sichuan Jiuyuan Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd.”. This matter is still ongoing. If there is further progress, the company will promptly disclose it in accordance with the relevant regulations of the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. ”

Investment advice: As a core beneficiary of the health insurance data element industry, Jiuyuan Yinhai has deep industry accumulation. Affected by the macroeconomy, the company's repayment was under pressure in the short term, but it has sufficient orders and is quite flexible in the long term.

We believe that in the next stage, health insurance data operations are expected to become a breakthrough at the cutting edge of the industry, push “Data Factor X” into a period of accelerated development, and companies with first-mover advantages and card position advantages in segmented fields are expected to become core beneficiaries. We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 1.509 billion yuan, 1.749 billion yuan, and 2.059 billion yuan, respectively; net profit to mother will be 0.202 billion yuan, 0.242 billion yuan, and 0.309 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to PE of 44, 36, and 29 times, respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating.

Risk warning: Policy implementation progress falls short of expectations; industry competition may intensify.