投资端改善推动利润增长超预期。得益于更高的股基占比（1H24 18.1%），9M24 公司实现总/综合投资收益率6.8%/ 8.1%，较去年同期分别+4.5/5.1pct，前三季度公允价值变动收益为420 亿元，较去同期-29 亿元大幅改善，3Q24 实现公允价值变动收益271 亿元（3Q23 为-10 亿元），预计受益于Q3 权益市场快速回升。截至报告期末公司净资产911 亿元/ qoq+1.1%。Incident: The company disclosed 9M24 results. Net profit doubled year-on-year, and improvements on the investment side drove profit growth beyond expectations. 9M24 achieved net profit of 20.7 billion yuan/yoy +116.7%. Affected by rising capital markets, it achieved net profit of 9.6 billion yuan in Q3 in a single quarter, a significant improvement over -0.4 billion yuan in the same period last year. 9M24 NBV yoy +79.2%, expected to benefit from the decline in industry interest rates and the integration of banking insurance channels; achieving a total and comprehensive return on investment of 6.8%/8.1%, +4.5/5.1 pct compared to the same period last year, respectively.
The growth rate of NBV increased, and the life insurance business structure continued to improve. 9M24's NBV yoy +79.2%, up from 1H24 (yoy +57.7%) growth rate. 9M24 achieved premiums of 34.1 billion yuan/yoy -12.7% for the first year of long-term insurance, including 3.1 billion yuan/yoy +21.3% for 10 years or more, 9.4 billion yuan/yoy -45%; 3Q24 long-term insurance premiums 15.6 billion yuan/yoy +195.4% for the first year, with premiums of 0.78 billions/yoy +32.5% for 10 years or more, improving the premium structure. The improved withdrawal rate in the first three quarters was 1.3%, an optimization of 0.2 pct compared to the same period last year, and the quality of business continued to improve.
Individual insurance channels are vigorously promoting the development of futures contracts, and banking insurance channels are growing rapidly. 9M24's individual insurance channels achieved first-year premiums of 12.4 billion yuan/yoy +16.6%, with prepayment premiums accounting for 96.5% /yoy+1.7pct, and 3Q24 long-term insurance premiums 3.9 billion yuan/yoy +70.2% for the first year. The 9M24 banking insurance channel achieved first-year premiums of 21.6 billion yuan/yoy -24.1%, of which prepayment premiums accounted for 58.7% /yoy+16.8pct, and 3Q24 long-term insurance premiums of 11.6 billion yuan/yoy +293.5%.
Investment-side improvements have boosted profit growth beyond expectations. Thanks to a higher share base share ratio (1H24 18.1%), 9M24 achieved a total/comprehensive return on investment of 6.8%/8.1%, compared with +4.5/5.1pct in the same period last year. Fair value change earnings for the first three quarters were 42 billion yuan, a significant improvement over -2.9 billion yuan in the previous period, and 3Q24 achieved fair value change income of 27.1 billion yuan (-1 billion yuan in 3Q23), which is expected to benefit from a rapid recovery in the Q3 equity market. The company's net assets as of the end of the reporting period were 91.1 billion yuan/qoq +1.1%.
Investment advice: Maintain the company's “Highly Recommended” rating. Debt side: The company's business quality has been steadily improved, and the business structure is continuously optimized. The NBVM upgrade is expected to drive NBV to continue to grow rapidly. Asset side: Investment income has improved dramatically, 4Q23 profit (-0.83 billion yuan). The growth rate is expected to increase quarterly under a low base, and the asset burden will continue to resonate. Net profit for 24-26 is estimated to be 19.3, 22.6, and 26.1 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of +121.4%, +17.4%, and +15.4%; 24-26 NBV 6.35, 7.15, and 7.98 billion yuan, respectively, +109.8%, +12.6% year-on-year, respectively. The current closing price corresponding to 24E-26E dynamic P/EV is 0.55 times, 0.53 times, and 0.51 times, respectively.
Risk warning: 1) sharp decline in the number of agents; 2) equity market fluctuations; 3) credit risk exposure.
