电池包及户用系统业务稳健发展。2024Q3 公司储能电池实现销量约50-60MWh，营收贡献约0.8-1 亿元，毛利率维持在30%，我们预计2024 年实现营收5-8 亿元；2024Q3 户用分布式系统贡献约8-9 亿元营收，我们预计2024 全年实现出货1GW+，毛利率维持在15%。Key points of investment
Event: The company's 2024Q1-Q3 revenue was 4.94 billion yuan, -12.5% YoY, net profit 0.01 billion yuan, YoY -99%, gross profit margin 23%, YoY -11.1pct, YoY net interest rate 0.2%, YoY -15.6pct; of which 2024Q3 revenue was 1.8 billion yuan, -2.2%/-11.2% YoY, net profit to mother 0.03 billion yuan, -78.6% /+550.8% YoY, gross profit margin 23.4% , YoY -7.8pct/+3.3pct. Performance was slightly lower than expected.
The share of 2024Q3 energy storage shipments increased, and profits began to gradually recover. 2024Q3's grid-connected inverters sold about 0.16 million units (0.09 million overseas units + 0.07 million domestic units), about +36%/-9% compared to the same period, and contributed 0.5-0.6 billion yuan in revenue. Due to some of the increases coming from emerging markets, the unit price dropped to 3800-4000 yuan/unit, and the gross margin remained at 25%. 2024Q3 energy storage inverters sold around 0.02 million units, -23%/+25% compared to the same period last month, contributed about 0.2 billion yuan in revenue, maintained gross margin of around 45%, and energy storage inverters accounted for 11% + of inverter shipments. We expect the company to ship 0.6-0.65 million/ 0.07-0.08 million units of grid-connected/energy storage inverters in 2024, respectively, +18%/-52% compared to the same period. The company will continue to expand into emerging markets, and European demand may recover after interest rate cuts, and there will be further growth next year.
The battery pack and household systems business is developing steadily. 2024Q3's energy storage battery sales volume is about 50-60 MWH, revenue contribution is about 0.08-0.1 billion yuan, and gross margin is maintained at 30%. We expect revenue of 0.5-0.8 billion yuan in 2024; the 2024Q3 household distributed system contributes about 0.8-0.9 billion yuan in revenue. We expect to achieve 1GW+ shipments throughout 2024, and maintain a gross margin of 15%.
2024Q3 fees have decreased slightly, and contract liabilities have increased slightly. The company's expenses for the 2024Q1-Q3 period were 1.04 billion yuan, +31.9% year-on-year, and +7.1pct, of which the 2024Q3 cost was 0.35 billion yuan, +3.4%/-1.4%, and the period cost ratio was 19.6%, +1.1 pct/+1.9pct compared to the same period; the final contract debt of 2024Q3 was 0.274 billion yuan, up 20% from the beginning of the year.
Profit forecast and investment rating: Considering the company's slow market expansion and high cost ratio this year, we lowered the company's profit forecast. We expect net profit to be 0.19/0.61/0.87 billion yuan (previous value 0.42/0.9/1.13 billion yuan) for 2024-2026, -78%/+217%/+44% year-on-year. Considering that the company continues to expand into emerging markets, and European demand may recover after interest rate cuts, shipments are expected to increase next year, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Competition is intensifying, and policies fall short of expectations.
