地产成交逐步好转，竣工链有望得到提振。据克而瑞新房方面，2024 年10 月前20 日，28 城新房总成交规模达到了733 万方，较2024 年9 月日均增长11%，同比去年同期微降2%，基本持平。二手房方面，10 月前20 日重点16 城二手房成交5.43 万套，环增11%、同增14%。其中，北上深成交环比上涨31%、同比增加60%；二线二手房成交热度一般。总体来看，930 新政以及后续配套政策落地，短期市场信心有所恢复，楼市筑底现象初显。随着地产的企稳，竣工链也有望得到支撑，提振玻璃需求。Incident: In the Q3 quarter, the company's revenue was 3.689 billion yuan, down 14.21% year on year; net profit to mother was -0.112 billion yuan, down 118.80% year on year; net profit not returned to mother was -0.137 billion yuan, down 123.77% year on year.
Completion affected float, PV competition affected prices, and 24Q3 performance declined sharply year on month. Real estate completion area declined year-on-year in 2024, demand in the back-end industry chain was under pressure, float glass prices fell quarterly (Q3 average price was 80.77 yuan/weight box, down 13.50 yuan/weight box), and inventory increased month-on-month (as of 2024Q3, inventory of 48.63 million weight boxes, up 7.57 million weight boxes from month to month). However, although raw materials declined, soda ash (the average price in Q3 was 189.23 yuan/ton, down 259.23 yuan/ton from the previous month), the price decline had a greater impact. At the same time, competition in the photovoltaic industry was intense, and product prices were under pressure in the Q3 quarter. Affected by this, 2024Q3 performance declined to a single quarter loss of 0.112 billion yuan, while 2024Q2 profit was 0.369 billion yuan, and 2023Q3 profit was 0.596 billion yuan.
Glass prices fell due to insufficient demand, and 2024Q3 profit margins fell sharply. 2024Q3's gross margin was 7.69%, down 20.01pct; the net profit margin was -4.74%, down 18.59pct. The decline in gross margin was mainly due to intense competition in the construction and photovoltaic glass industries and a sharp drop in prices. Looking specifically at the cost side, the company's expense ratio for the 2024Q3 period was 13.34%, an increase of 2.10pct. Among them, the sales expense ratio was 1.27%, an increase of 0.18 pct, the management expense ratio (including R&D) was 9.51%, an increase of 0.51 pct, and the financial expense ratio was 2.55%, and an increase of 1.41 pct.
Real estate transactions are gradually improving, and the completion chain is expected to be boosted. According to Kerry's new homes, the total sales volume of new homes in 28 cities reached 7.33 million square meters before October 20, 2024, an average daily increase of 11% over September 2024, and a slight decrease of 2% over the same period last year, which is basically the same. In terms of second-hand housing, second-hand housing transactions of 0.0543 million units were sold in 16 key cities in the first 20 October, an increase of 11% and 14% over the same period. Among them, transactions between North and Shenzhen rose 31% month-on-month and 60% year-on-year; second-tier second-hand housing transactions were generally popular. Overall, with the implementation of the 930 New Deal and subsequent supporting policies, short-term market confidence has recovered, and the phenomenon of the property market bottoming out is beginning to show. As real estate stabilizes, the completion chain is also expected to be supported, boosting demand for glass.
Investment advice: We expect the company to achieve net profit of 0.793/0.973/1.397 billion yuan in 2024-2026, a year-on-year change of -54.7%/22.8%/43.6%. The latest closing price corresponds to PE of 23x /19x /13x, maintaining the “increase” rating.
