费投加强以应对弱需求环境，盈利能力阶段性承压。3Q24 公司销售/管理/研发费用率分别同比+2.4pct/-0.9pct/+0.2pct，销售费用率同比显著上升，主因公司加大市场费用投入和推广力度，积极应对相对低迷的市场消费环境。而盈利能力因此受到一定扰动，3Q24 公司归母净利率同比-0.6pct 至15.2%。incident. The company released its 2024 three-quarter report: 24Q1-3 achieved total operating income of 28.959 billion yuan, -6.5% year on year, net profit of 4.99 billion yuan, +1.7% year on year; of these, the Q3 single quarter company achieved total operating income of 8.891 billion yuan, -5.3% year over year, and net profit to mother of 1.348 billion yuan, or -9.0% year on year.
The market is sluggish and volume and price are under pressure. 3Q24's revenue was -5.3% year-on-year, and beer sales/average price were -5.1%/-0.2%, respectively, mainly due to slow recovery in domestic beer market consumption. In terms of sales volume, the total sales volume of beer during the quarter was 2.155 million kiloliters. Among them, the main brand Tsingtao Brewery and other brands sold 1.225/0.93 million kiloliters, respectively, or -4.1%/-6.3% compared to the same period last year. High-end products sold 0.883 million kiloliters, -4.7% year-on-year.
The cost dividend continues to be realized, and the decline in cost per ton drives an improvement in gross margin. 3Q24's gross margin was +1.2pct year over year, and gross margin continued to improve. We believe it mainly benefited from the further realization of the beer raw material cost dividend. Q3 beer unit cost was -2.2% year over year.
Expense investment has been strengthened to cope with a weak demand environment, and profitability has been put under pressure in stages. 3Q24's sales/management/R&D expense ratios were +2.4pct/-0.9pct/+0.2pct, respectively. The sales expense ratio increased significantly year-on-year, mainly because the company increased its market investment and promotion efforts to respond positively to the relatively sluggish market consumption environment. Profitability was somewhat disrupted as a result, and the 3Q24 company's net profit margin was -0.6pct to 15.2% year over year.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. We expect the company's 2024-2026 EPS to be 3.16, 3.48, and 3.78 yuan/share, respectively. Referring to comparable company valuations, we gave the company 20-25 times PE in 2024, with a corresponding reasonable value range of 63.15-78.94 yuan, maintaining a “superior to the market” rating.
Risk warning. Competition in the industry is fierce, and raw material prices are rising.
