$BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$ For the first time, quarterly revenue has exceeded.$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Compared with the same period last year, revenue.
byd company limited's latest third-quarter report reveals that the company's revenue in the third quarter was 201.1 billion yuan, exceeding tesla's revenue of 179.4 billion yuan for the same period for the first time.
The market generally believes that this year is a high-speed development year for BYD. Looking at the stock price performance, the A-shares of BYD have accumulated an increase of 56.22% from the beginning of the year to now, while the H-shares of BYD have surged by 39.68%. Tesla's stock performance this year has fallen short of expectations, only recently erasing last year's decline and slightly rising by 3%, making it one of the worst-performing companies in big market cap US stocks.
Industry insiders believe that competition in the new energy automotive industry is entering an inevitable challenging phase. Some also believe that currently, the Chinese automotive market has ended the era of high-speed growth and entered a period of maintaining existing levels. In the future, major car manufacturers are expected to accelerate the launch of new car models, intensifying competition in the electric vehicle industry.
BYD's revenue surpasses Tesla for the first time.
On October 30, BYD released its third-quarter report, with the company's third-quarter revenue totaling 201.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24%.
In contrast, Tesla's financial report for the third quarter of the 2024 fiscal year, disclosed on October 24, showed a total revenue of 25.182 billion US dollars, which is approximately 179.4 billion yuan at the latest exchange rate.
As the two largest electric vehicle manufacturers in China and even globally, Tesla and BYD hold significant positions in the global electric vehicle market, both maintaining growth in the intense industry competition.
In terms of net income, BYD still lags behind Tesla. Tesla reported a non-GAAP net income of 2.5 billion US dollars in the third quarter of this year, approximately 17.8 billion yuan. In comparison, BYD achieved a net income attributable to shareholders of 11.607 billion yuan in the third quarter, a year-on-year increase of 11.47%.
This is mainly due to Tesla's continuous technological breakthroughs and low manufacturing costs brought by highly efficient local factories. Tesla's cars continue to sell well globally due to its competitive advantages. In the third quarter of 2024, the company achieved year-on-year growth in global production and deliveries, with delivery volume reaching a new high. Tesla is no longer confined to the electric vehicle business, expanding inorganicly by focusing not only on increasing vehicle production capacity but also enhancing competitiveness in the electric vehicle business through improving autonomous driving capabilities and energy storage business. Musk stated that Tesla is becoming the most competitive company in autonomous driving. Tesla's energy business is also growing, with cumulative installed capacity surging in the first three quarters of this year.
Looking at the first three quarters, BYD's revenue reached 502.251 billion yuan, an 18.94% year-on-year increase, and net income was 25.238 billion yuan, up by 18.12%. Meanwhile, Tesla's revenue for the first three quarters this year was 504.4 billion yuan, with non-GAAP net income of 41.366 billion yuan. If BYD maintains a higher revenue growth rate than Tesla in the fourth quarter, it is expected to surpass Tesla in annual revenue. However, surpassing Tesla in net income remains a significant challenge for BYD.
BYD's stock price has surged this year.
The market generally believes that this year has been a highlight for BYD, while Tesla has experienced a temporary pause in its development. In terms of sales, BYD achieved a sales volume of 1.1349 million vehicles in the third quarter, a 37.7% year-on-year increase; the cumulative sales volume for the first three quarters was 2.748 million vehicles, up by 32.1% year-on-year.
From the stock price performance perspective, so far this year, BYD A-shares have achieved a significant increase, with a cumulative increase of 56.22%, and the latest market cap is 850.6 billion yuan. As for the Hong Kong stock market, BYD's stock price surged by 39.68%, also showing good performance. It is worth noting that BYD's financial report continues to improve, with a significant decrease in short bets. According to S&P Global Inc.'s data, the short-selling ratio of BYD's Hong Kong stocks has decreased from 7.7% at the beginning of this year to 0.9% as of last Friday, close to the lowest level since July 2022.
Huachuang Securities pointed out in the report that BYD company has a strong competitive willingness, coupled with a smooth transition in the product cycle, is expected to achieve success in domestic market share, overseas sales volume, and high-end strategy. Considering the resonance of the company's product cycle and subsidy policies, the core forecast for 2024-2026 has been revised upward. The company's fundamentals are trending upwards, considering a potential valuation shift in the next 6-12 months, raising the A-share target, corresponding to a target market cap exceeding tens of trillions by 2025.
On the other hand, Tesla's stock performance this year has fallen short of expectations, only recently erasing the decline from last year and seeing a slight 3% increase, making it one of the worst-performing stocks among high market cap US companies. Tesla's latest market cap is $826 billion.
Previously, the market had lower expectations for Tesla's car sales growth and new car pace, causing Tesla's stock price to perform poorly for most of this year.
Tesla is pinning hopes on 2025. Tesla's FSD, humanoid robots, Robotaxi affordable models and other products are expected to continue to drive the company's stock price performance in 2025.
Institutions indicate that the company's recent guidance mentioning 20%-30% growth in car deliveries by 2025 and the launch of affordable models, coupled with the third quarter of the company turning profits by cutting costs internally in intense competition, have restored the market's confidence in car growth. Huatai Securities believes that Tesla company, with redesigned cars, pickups, and affordable models, is poised to kick off a new model cycle in 2025. Looking ahead, the company's fundamentals are expected to have been restored, with increased volume of company models and continuous reduction in manufacturing costs driving the recovery of the automotive profit center, possibly leading to an exceptional development in the auto business.
However, the market believes that Tesla's Robotaxi event this month lacked details and fell short of expectations. Everbright Securities determined that the event did not cover new technologies, new processes, and other aspects, and the focus of the event with the design of two seats was relatively limited, leading to an overall content that was below expectations.
Intensified competition in the electric vehicle industry.
According to the recent data released by the China Passenger Car Association, the cumulative retail sales of the passenger vehicle market this year have reached 16.838 million vehicles, a 3% year-on-year increase, with cumulative retail sales of new energy vehicles reaching 7.741 million vehicles, a 38% year-on-year increase. However, as the penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to increase, this high-speed growth cannot be sustained.
Recently, Li Yang, the Executive Secretary of the National Big Data Alliance for New Energy Vehicles, believes that competition in the new energy vehicle industry has entered a deepwater zone that cannot be avoided. Some also believe that currently, the era of high-speed growth in the Chinese auto market has ended, entering the era of stock.
Looking at the data, the overall profit of the auto industry continues to decline. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in the first half of this year, the profit margin was only 4.98%, the lowest since 2017. Categorized, the total revenue of China's auto manufacturing industry was 4,767.22 billion yuan, a 5.1% year-on-year increase. Costs were 4,173 billion yuan, a 5.3% year-on-year increase. The total profit reached 237.7 billion yuan, a 10.7% year-on-year increase.
Looking ahead, new energy vehicle companies are still increasing capital expenditures, with more and more models being introduced to the market, intensifying competition in the new energy vehicle industry.
In terms of Tesla's sales guidance, Musk optimistically estimates that new vehicle deliveries will increase by 20%-30% in 2025, with the introduction of a budget model in the first half of 2025 priced below $30,000.
Soochow Securities predicts that BYD will maintain growth of over 20% until 2025. Looking at the entire year, as the peak season of September and October arrives, Soochow Securities predicts that BYD's sales will continue to increase, with sales expected to exceed 4 million units in 2024, a 32% year-on-year increase. In terms of structure, exports are expected to grow by over 65% in 2024, with sales expected to exceed 0.8 million units in 2025, potentially achieving around a doubling in growth.
At the 2024 World Smart Connected Vehicles Conference, Meng Xia, CEO of Volkswagen's Passenger Vehicle Brand in China, stated that by 2030, Volkswagen will introduce 22 all-new new energy vehicle models into the Chinese market, including pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, aiming to achieve a market share of over 10% by 2030, with an annual production of over 3 million vehicles.
SAIC-GM has announced this year that they will sound the clarion call for counterattack, launching new vehicles at the fastest pace, covering pure electric, plug-in hybrid, and extended-range power, with plans to introduce 12 all-new new energy vehicle models domestically by 2025.
$Chongqing Changan Automobile (000625.SZ)$The plan is to achieve an annual sales volume of 5 million vehicles by 2030. Chery Automobile announced an investment of over 100 billion in the next five years to layout intelligence.
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