维持增持。前 三季度营收43.1 亿元/+28.5%，归母净利3.22 亿元/+28.9%，扣非净利3.1 亿元/+32.8%；Q3 单季度营收15.6 亿元/+27%，归母1.15 亿元/+80.5%，扣非1.1 亿元/+92.4%好于预期。考虑公司品牌势能强化、海外发展提速，上调预测公司2024-26 年EPS 至1.18/1.47/1.78 元(原1.12/1.36/1.64 元)增速26/24/21%，参考同行业公司估值，上调目标价至41.3 元，维持增持。Introduction to this report:
Q3 Net profit after deducting non-net profit increased by 92%. November-December will enter the peak overseas consumption season, and I am optimistic that the trend of high growth will continue.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an increase in holdings. Revenue for the first three quarters was 4.31 billion yuan/ +28.5%, net profit of 0.322 billion yuan/ +28.9%, after deducting non-net profit of 0.31 billion yuan/ +32.8%; Q3 single quarter revenue of 1.56 billion yuan/ +27%, attributable to mother 0.115 billion yuan/ +80.5%, less than 0.11 billion yuan/ +92.4% was better than expected. Considering the strengthening of the company's brand potential and the acceleration of overseas development, the company's EPS growth rate was raised to 1.18/1.47/1.78 yuan (originally 1.12/1.36/1.64 yuan) in 2024-26. Referring to the valuation of companies in the same industry, the target price was raised to 41.3 yuan to maintain the increase in holdings.
In Q3, net profit increased, and operating cash flow improved significantly. 1) Q1-3 single quarter revenue growth rate 27.1/31.4/ 27%, respectively, net profit growth rate 10.4/12.1/ 80.1%, net profit growth rate of 14.2/13/ 92.4%, respectively; 2) gross profit margin of 37.7% /-0.18pct for the first three quarters, net profit rate 7.47% /+0.03pct; Q3 was 36.51% /-0.01pct, 7.29% /+1.94pct in a single quarter; 3) Expense rate for the period 28.85% /+0.13pct, with sales expenses ratio of 28.85% /+0.13pct 19.65% /+0.27pct, management expense ratio 4.34% /-0.44pct, R&D expense ratio 5.07% /+0.48pct, financial expense ratio -0.2%/-0.18pct; 4) Net operating cash flow 0.45 billion yuan/ +366%, a significant year-on-year improvement of 0.266 billion yuan in Q3.
Innovation drives product upgrades, and NAS business momentum is strong. 1) The company continues to expand its product boundaries and increase R&D investment on the basis of consolidating the technical advantages of existing products, especially in product fields such as NAS private cloud storage, headphone acoustics, and battery life; 2) Benefiting from the explosive growth in global data volume, the NAS market size continues to grow. According to Market Research, it is expected to reach 51 billion US dollars in 2028; the company strengthened R&D investment and launched a new DXP series in June, which has reached the international advanced level in terms of privacy policy, data security, and user rights protection. The future may be important Growth engine; 3) In summary, we are optimistic that the company will rely on the UGREEN brand to build a comprehensive product matrix. Technology research and development will create brand potential, and medium- to long-term development is worth looking forward to.
To accelerate overseas expansion, the Q4 peak consumption season is worth looking forward to. 1) The company combines online and offline, with online e-commerce platforms such as Amazon, and offline into large supermarkets such as Sam, Walmart, and APPLEPREMIUM stores; and has set up subsidiaries in many countries and regions to focus on localized business strategies; 2) November-December will enter the peak overseas consumption season (Thanksgiving Day+Black Five Net1 + Christmas, etc.). The company's 2023Q4 revenue/net profit deduction accounts for 30.2/ 35.6% of the year, respectively. We expect Q4 to continue to perform well.
Risk warning: the risk of international trade friction, the risk of rising shipping, increased industry competition, etc.
