Wanhua Chemical Group Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600309) missed earnings with its latest third-quarter results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with CN¥51b revenue coming in 4.5% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.93 missed the mark badly, arriving some 33% below what was expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Wanhua Chemical Group's 18 analysts is for revenues of CN¥226.6b in 2025. This would reflect a notable 19% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 33% to CN¥6.44. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥227.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥6.64 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at CN¥101, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Wanhua Chemical Group at CN¥110 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CN¥64.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Wanhua Chemical Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 15% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 22% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 491 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 15% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Wanhua Chemical Group is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Wanhua Chemical Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Plus, you should also learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Wanhua Chemical Group .
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
