分析认为，这些数据可以让美联储在未来几个季度连续降息，包括该行定于下周的会议。芝商所的“美联储观察”工具显示，市场预计该行11月7日降息25个基点的可能性超过96%。Spot gold once broke through the $2790 level, reaching a high of $2790.01 per ounce, continuing to hit historic highs; CME's 'Fed Watch' tool shows that the market expects a more than 96% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed on November 7th.
On Wednesday (October 30) during the New York session, spot gold once broke through the $2790 level, hitting new historic highs and potentially recording a daily five-day increase.
The ADP employment report released before the US pre-market trading session shows that American companies added 0.233 million jobs in September, far exceeding the expected 0.114 million, marking the largest increase since July 2023; The US GDP annualized growth rate for the third quarter was 2.8%, lower than the market's 3% expectation.
Analysts believe that this data could lead the Fed to continue cutting interest rates over the next few quarters, including at the upcoming meeting next week. CME's 'Fed Watch' tool indicates a market expectation of over 96% for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed on November 7th.
When interest rates decrease, the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases. Because gold does not pay interest or dividends, lower rates make holding gold relatively more attractive. At the same time, rate cuts may lead to a depreciation of the US dollar, boosting a range of csi commodity equity index priced in dollars.
Due to the impact of conflicts in Ukraine, Russia, and the Middle East, the spot gold price has remained strong, rising over 35% year-to-date, with only declines recorded in January and June. Furthermore, there are signs of accelerated growth in the second half of the year, with analysts attributing it to uncertainty surrounding the US election boosting gold bids.
In a report, Suki Cooper, an analyst at Standard Chartered Bank, wrote that 'the positioning of gold before the election has increased, with the market expecting further rate cuts from the Fed. Meanwhile, financial markets and geopolitical issues face broader uncertainties.'
Cooper mentioned that if Trump ultimately wins, the market will also focus on the impact of tariffs and the inflation pressure brought by tariffs. Previously, Financial Alliance has mentioned that Trump's presidency may exacerbate trade tensions and widen budget deficits, which will support gold.
Earlier today, the World Gold Council released the "Global Gold Demand Trends Report": The report shows that the total global gold demand in the third quarter was 1313 tons, a 5% year-on-year increase; the total amount of gold demand in US dollars surpassed 100 billion US dollars for the first time, setting a new historical record.
Editor/ping
