NOV Inc.'s (NYSE:NOV) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 5.6x might make it look like a strong buy right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 19x and even P/E's above 35x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so limited.
Recent times have been pleasing for NOV as its earnings have risen in spite of the market's earnings going into reverse. One possibility is that the P/E is low because investors think the company's earnings are going to fall away like everyone else's soon. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.
How Is NOV's Growth Trending?
The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as depressed as NOV's is when the company's growth is on track to lag the market decidedly.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 115% gain to the company's bottom line. Although, its longer-term performance hasn't been as strong with three-year EPS growth being relatively non-existent overall. So it appears to us that the company has had a mixed result in terms of growing earnings over that time.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the analysts covering the company suggest earnings growth is heading into negative territory, declining 9.6% per annum over the next three years. With the market predicted to deliver 11% growth each year, that's a disappointing outcome.
In light of this, it's understandable that NOV's P/E would sit below the majority of other companies. However, shrinking earnings are unlikely to lead to a stable P/E over the longer term. Even just maintaining these prices could be difficult to achieve as the weak outlook is weighing down the shares.
The Key Takeaway
We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
As we suspected, our examination of NOV's analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking earnings is contributing to its low P/E. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. Unless these conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.
You need to take note of risks, for example - NOV has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is a bit unpleasant) we think you should know about.
It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
