Upwork Inc. (NASDAQ:UPWK) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 28% after a shaky period beforehand. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 30%.
After such a large jump in price, given close to half the companies operating in the United States' Professional Services industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 1.6x, you may consider Upwork as a stock to potentially avoid with its 2.4x P/S ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.
How Has Upwork Performed Recently?
Upwork's revenue growth of late has been pretty similar to most other companies. One possibility is that the P/S ratio is high because investors think this modest revenue performance will accelerate. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.
If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on Upwork.What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?
Upwork's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver solid growth, and importantly, perform better than the industry.
Taking a look back first, we see that the company managed to grow revenues by a handy 14% last year. This was backed up an excellent period prior to see revenue up by 69% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been superb for the company.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the ten analysts covering the company suggest revenue should grow by 7.4% per year over the next three years. With the industry predicted to deliver 6.8% growth per annum, the company is positioned for a comparable revenue result.
With this information, we find it interesting that Upwork is trading at a high P/S compared to the industry. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly average growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. Although, additional gains will be difficult to achieve as this level of revenue growth is likely to weigh down the share price eventually.
The Key Takeaway
The large bounce in Upwork's shares has lifted the company's P/S handsomely. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
Seeing as its revenues are forecast to grow in line with the wider industry, it would appear that Upwork currently trades on a higher than expected P/S. When we see revenue growth that just matches the industry, we don't expect elevates P/S figures to remain inflated for the long-term. Unless the company can jump ahead of the rest of the industry in the short-term, it'll be a challenge to maintain the share price at current levels.
There are also other vital risk factors to consider before investing and we've discovered 1 warning sign for Upwork that you should be aware of.
If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.