零售业务稳健增长：2024 年前三季度，零售业务实现营收23.95 亿元，同比增长16.49%；实现归母净利润1.17 亿元，同比增长7.44%。公司凭借强化差异化品种优势和“互联网+医药”、慢病管理服务、DTP 药店业务、处方外延项目等，稳步提升药店竞争力，推动门店品种结构优化，慢病特药等 DTP 品种、双通道品种在零售端销售增加，零售业务收入继续保持增长。Incident: In the third quarter of 2024, Liuyao Group achieved revenue of 5.351 billion yuan, up 1.49% year on year; achieved net profit of 0.252 billion yuan, up 8.68% year on year; achieved revenue of 15.993 billion yuan, up 2.41% year on year in the first three quarters of 2024; achieved net profit of 0.716 billion yuan, up 6.13% year on year.
The growth rate of the wholesale business has slowed: in the first three quarters of 2024, Liuyao Group's wholesale sector achieved revenue of 12.705 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.14%; net profit to mother was 0.455 billion yuan, an increase of 6.15% over the previous year.
In 2024, the normalization of collection and implementation of medical insurance payments (DRGs), and stricter industry compliance regulations have had a certain impact on the amount and structure of medication used at the hospital side, putting pressure on the scale of the pharmaceutical distribution market. The company uses channel resource advantages to accelerate the introduction and promotion of high-quality innovative drugs, and leverages pharmaceutical device collaboration advantages to promote SPD projects for hospital equipment and consumables, and increase the market share of equipment consumables.
Steady growth in retail business: In the first three quarters of 2024, the retail business achieved revenue of 2.395 billion yuan, up 16.49% year on year; net profit to mother was 0.117 billion yuan, up 7.44% year on year. By strengthening the advantages of differentiated varieties and “Internet+ Pharmaceuticals”, chronic disease management services, DTP pharmacy business, prescription extension projects, etc., the company has steadily improved the competitiveness of pharmacies, promoted the optimization of store variety structure, increased sales of DTP varieties and dual-channel varieties such as chronic disease specialty drugs on the retail side, and retail business revenue continued to grow.
The industrial sector accelerated the expansion of markets outside the province: in the first three quarters of 2024, the industrial business achieved revenue of 0.808 billion yuan, an increase of 5.21% over the previous year; net profit to mother was 0.142 billion yuan, an increase of 7.18% over the previous year. The company coordinates the sales and promotion of its proprietary Chinese medicine products through its proprietary Chinese medicine marketing center, establishes cooperation with leading national pharmacy chains, commercial companies and agents, and expands markets outside the region. In addition, the company is actively developing a traditional Chinese medicine formula granule production project, and has completed the filing of more than 570 varieties as of the publication date of this report.
Investment advice: The three major businesses are gradually improving to accelerate expansion outside the province. We expect the company to achieve operating income of 22.269/24.097/26.295 billion yuan and net profit of 0.918/1.02/1.141 billion yuan in 2024-2026.
The corresponding PE was 6.87/6.19/5.53 times, respectively, maintaining the “gain” rating.
Risk warning: hospital diagnosis and treatment recovery falls short of expectations; retail business is affected by price comparison; sales expansion is weak
