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• Amazing! The U.S. 'small non-farm' in October reached more than double the expected amount, showing resilience in the labor market.

The latest data released on Wednesday, October 30th, Eastern Time, showed that despite the devastating storms in the southeastern United States and large-scale strikes, the U.S. ADP employment data, known as 'small non-farm', hit the highest level in over a year, indicating unexpectedly strong demand for workers by companies. Data released by the Automatic Data Processing Company (ADP) showed that in October, the number of employed persons in the U.S. increased by 0.233 million, the largest increase since July 2023, far surpassing the expected 0.114 million.

• Citigroup: If Trump wins the election, it is a good opportunity to "take profit" during the surge in US stocks.

A Trump victory is usually seen as a bullish signal for the stock market, potentially boosting market gains, as his proposal to reduce corporate taxes is expected to lift business performance. However, Citigroup strategists believe that the 'near-enthusiastic sentiment' that has driven the S&P 500 index to rise for six consecutive months indicates that the time for a pullback has matured. 'Due to the fundamental uncertainty we expect from Trump's potential reelection combined with a complete Republican victory scenario, we are inclined to reduce positions in any market rallies following the election.'

• U.S. Treasury Department's Major Quarterly Refinancing Announcement: Maintaining the same long-bond auction size and guidance unchanged.

The U.S. Treasury Department stated on Wednesday that it will maintain the size of its quarterly debt auctions unchanged, with quarterly refinancing at $125 billion, and reiterated its guidance that 'at least in the coming quarters' there will be no increase in issuance size, in line with market expectations. However, some strategists warn that this will be the Biden administration's final refinancing plan, and the election results next week may bring changes in U.S. debt management strategies and related personnel.

• The USA election is undecided, and the US dollar hedging costs have risen to the highest level since 2022.

Traders are preparing to deal with the significant market volatility after next week's US presidential election, with the hedging price surge in USD reaching the highest level in nearly two years. This indicates that traders are preparing for significant fluctuations in the USD against major currencies such as the Euro, Yen, Renminbi, and Mexican Peso, thereby increasing the cost of options to hedge against such volatility. A Barclays Bank foreign exchange strategist stated, 'Elections are a binary event for the foreign exchange market, leading to an increased demand for forex hedging.'

• Next year, aiming for $3000! Goldman Sachs raises its gold price target, stating that central bank demand expectations have quadrupled.

This Wednesday, the international gold price hit a new all-time high during intraday trading, with the spot gold price reaching $2790 per ounce when US stocks hit a new high at midday. Goldman Sachs recently raised its gold price target, saying that gold is more popular during rate cuts; concerns about financial sanctions are driving central bank gold purchases, with Western investors returning to the gold market as the focus shifts to the US election; even if by the end of next year, central banks slow down their gold purchases to 30 tons per month, only a third of the average monthly scale since 2022, the gold price by the end of the year will increase by another 9%.

Gamestop's surge has dramatically narrowed, with the trading platform considering unplugging the internet of US retail investors.

• The three major indices all closed lower, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index components collectively declining.

On Wednesday, the three major US indices all closed lower. At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.22%; the S&P 500 Index fell by 0.33%; the Nasdaq Composite Index fell by 0.56%, ending a four-day winning streak.

Large tech stocks had mixed movements, with Google rising by 2.92%, Amazon rising by 1.00%, Microsoft rising by 0.13%, Meta falling by 0.25%, Tesla falling by 0.76%, Nvidia falling by 1.36%, and Apple falling by 1.53%.

The PHLX Semiconductor Index dropped by 3.35%, with all 30 component stocks experiencing losses. Radiofrequency chip manufacturer Qorvo fell by 27.31%, AMD fell by 10.62%, Qualcomm fell by 4.76%, ASML Holding fell by 4.38%, and Micron Technology fell by 3.79%.

Most China concept stocks fell, with Nio down 4.46%, PDD down 3.50%, JD.com down 2.70%, XPeng down 2.16%, Baidu down 1.46%, Tencent Music down 1.21%, Alibaba down 1.13%, Li Auto up 1.83%.

• Microsoft's Q3 Azure revenue grew by over 30%, but it is expected to slow down in Q4, with increased AI spending, causing a post-earnings drop of over 3%.

$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$After earnings, it dropped by over 3%. For the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, the revenue was 65.6 billion US dollars, analysts expected 64.51 billion US dollars; EPS for the first quarter was $3.30, while analysts expected $3.11; The first quarter's cloud business revenue was 24.09 billion US dollars; The revenue growth of Azure and other cloud services in the first quarter, excluding exchange rate factors, was 34%; In the first quarter, AI contributed 12 percentage points to the growth of Azure revenue. Microsoft expects that under fixed exchange rates unaffected by exchange rate effects, revenue from the Azure cloud computing business in the second quarter, i.e. the fourth quarter of this year, will slow down, with expected Azure revenue growth of 31% to 32% in the fourth quarter, lower than the 34% in the third quarter.

• Meta's revenue slightly exceeded expectations, with severe losses in the metaverse business. Capital expenditures are expected to increase significantly next year, leading to a post-earnings drop of nearly 3%.

$Meta Platforms (META.US)$After-hours, fell by nearly 3%, with revenue of $40.59 billion in the third quarter, analysts expected $40.25 billion; EPS for the third quarter was $6.03, analysts expected $5.25; Expected revenue for the fourth quarter is $45 billion to $48 billion, analysts expected $46.09 billion; Expected full-year capital expenditures of $38 billion to $40 billion, previously expected $37 billion to $40 billion, analysts expected $38.06 billion.

• Former AI stock superstar, Super Micro Computer, had its auditor Ernst & Young resign, questioning the company's governance and ethical integrity, leading to a subsequent drop of over 2% after hours.

Super Micro Computer plunged more than 30% yesterday, followed by a further decline of over 2% after hours. According to media reports, Ernst & Young LLP has resigned from the audit work due to concerns about the company's governance and transparency.$Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$Based on the 8-K filing submitted by Super Micro on Wednesday, Ernst & Young questioned the company's commitment to integrity and ethics, only agreeing with certain parts of the 8-K filing.

• Apple has upgraded its entire Mac product line, releasing the MacBook Pro with the M4 chip.

$Apple (AAPL.US)$Apple has released a new MacBook Pro series featuring the latest M4 chips, aiming to attract consumers with faster processing speeds and artificial intelligence capabilities. Apple stated that these laptops start at $1599 and will be equipped with M4, M4 Pro, and M4 Max processors. Apple started accepting pre-orders from Wednesday, and the new products are expected to be launched on November 8. This is the latest upgrade in the Mac series.

• Booking Holdings total bookings for the third quarter exceeded expectations, rising more than 6% after earnings.

Roku Inc surged more than 6% after the earnings, an online travel company.$Booking Holdings (BKNG.US)$第三财季总预订为43.4 billion美元，分析师预期41.37 billion美元；第三财季调整后每股收益为83.89美元，分析师预期77.27美元；第三财季营收8 billion美元，分析师预期7.63 billion美元；第三财季调整后EBITDA为3.7 billion美元，分析师预期3.36 billion美元。

• eBay's fourth-quarter net revenue guidance is lower than expected, dropping more than 7% after the results.

$eBay (EBAY.US)$绩后跌超7%，第三财季净营收约2.6 billion美元，分析师预期2.55 billion美元；第三财季商品零售总额18.31 billion美元，分析师预期18.11 billion美元；第三财季活跃用户0.133 billion，分析师预期0.13274 billion；预计第四财季净营收2.53 billion美元至2.59 billion美元，分析师预期2.64 billion美元。

• Coinbase's third-quarter adjusted earnings per share fell more than 4% below expectations after the results.

绩后跌超4%，$Coinbase (COIN.US)$In the third quarter, revenue was $1.13 billion, below analysts' expectations of $1.25 billion; EPS in the third quarter was $0.28, below analysts' forecast of $0.43; net income in the third quarter was $75 million, below analysts' forecast of $0.1122 billion; trading volume in the third quarter was $185 billion, below analysts' forecast of $186.44 billion.

• Roku Inc's fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA guidance fell short of expectations, dropping over 11% after earnings.

After the earnings report, the stock fell more than 11%.$Roku Inc (ROKU.US)$In the third quarter, the streaming media company's net revenue was $1.16 billion, exceeding analysts' expectations of $1.02 billion; expected net revenue in the fourth quarter is $1.14 billion, with analysts' forecast at $1.11 billion; expected fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA is $30 million, while analysts expect $36.2 million.

BeiShui crazily bought China Mobile for nearly HKD 1.8 billion and sold Tencent for about HKD 200 million. On Monday (June 3rd), Southbound funds net purchased HKD 3.4 billion of Hong Kong stocks.

• Beishui aggressively subscribed to Alibaba with over 0.7 billion Hong Kong dollars, increased its position in Xiaomi by over 0.2 billion Hong Kong dollars, and significantly sold Hong Kong stock etf.

On October 30 (Wednesday), the net outflow of funds from the northbound trading resulted in HK$4.779 billion selling of Hong Kong stocks.

$BABA-W (09988.HK)$,$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$,$CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$Received net buy of 0.741 billion Hong Kong dollars, 0.238 billion Hong Kong dollars, 0.153 billion Hong Kong dollars respectively;

$TRACKER FUND OF HONG KONG (02800.HK)$,$Hang Seng H-Share Index ETF (02828.HK)$,$CSOP Hang Seng TECH Index ETF (03033.HK)$Received net sell orders of 3.811 billion Hong Kong dollars, 1.374 billion Hong Kong dollars, 1.276 billion Hong Kong dollars respectively.

• AIA Insurance's new business value in the third quarter increased by 16% to $1.161 billion.

$AIA (01299.HK)$Announcing the performance for the third quarter of 2024, achieving a new business value of $1.161 billion, an increase of 16% compared to the same period last year, with growth realized in 15 out of 18 markets. Benefiting from higher agent activity and productivity, the new business value of the 'top agents' for the company increased by 15%. Agent recruitment remains robust with double-digit growth in new recruits, while the number of active agents in the group increased by 9% compared to the third quarter of 2023.

• BYD Company Limited released its performance for the first three quarters, with a net income of 25.238 billion yuan, an 18.12% increase.

$BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$In the third quarter of 2024, the company's revenue for the first three quarters was 502.251 billion yuan, an increase of 18.94% year-on-year. The net income attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 25.238 billion yuan, an increase of 18.12% year-on-year. The net income attributable to shareholders of the listed company after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 23.192 billion yuan, an increase of 19.86% year-on-year. Basic earnings per share were 8.68 yuan.

The company's overall sales volume in 2023 was 18,000 kiloliters, with a year-on-year increase of 28.10%, indicating significant growth. In terms of product structure, the operating income of products worth 10-30 billion yuan were 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively.

Keywords: China's official manufacturing PMI for October, US core PCE price index monthly rate for September, Challenger layoff count for October, Bank of Japan monetary policy press conference, European economic bulletin.

On Thursday, in terms of economic data, China will release the official manufacturing PMI data for October, the US will release the core PCE price index monthly rate for September, Challenger layoff count for October, and a series of data including initial jobless claims numbers for the week ending October 26th, Bank of Japan will announce target interest rate data, Eurozone will release September unemployment rate, October CPI monthly rate, and other data.

On the financial event front, Bank of Japan will hold a monetary policy press conference, European Central Bank will publish the economic bulletin.

In terms of performance, in the Hong Kong stock market$BUD APAC (01876.HK)$Will release the latest performance in the US stock market.$Apple (AAPL.US)$,$Li Auto (LI.US)$,$Amazon (AMZN.US)$,$Intel (INTC.US)$The other company will also release its results.

Regarding new listings, Hong Kong's new stock $BIOSTAR PHARM-B (02563.HK)$Listed in Hong Kong, a new stock in the US market$COR3 & Co (COC.US)$will be listed.

Futubull Morning News:

Successful investment is not about "buying well", but about "buying well".

- Howard Marks

Editor/ping