通行费收入仍承压，Q3 同比降幅收窄。2024 年前三季度，公司实现通行费收入（含税）75.69 亿元，同比下降7.44%；其中，核心路产济青高速实现通行费收入（含税）24.45 亿元，同比下降13.62%，主要受济青中线通车分流以及交叉路段改扩建影响。分季度来看，2024 年Q1、Q2、Q3，公司分别实现通行费收入（含税）22.61、23.95、29.12 亿元，同比分别下降12.21%、8.47%、2.42%。Shandong Expressway released its report for the third quarter of 2024 on October 29, 2024:
In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 19.901 billion yuan, up 10.94% year on year (after adjustment, same below); net profit of 2.516 billion yuan, down 5.70% year on year; net cash flow from operating activities of 4.677 billion yuan, up 5.53% year on year; basic earnings per share of 0.429 yuan, down 9.30% year on year; and weighted average return on net assets of 7.15%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.17 percentage points.
In the third quarter of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 7.765 billion yuan, up 19.33% year on year and 2.10% month on month; net profit to mother was 0.883 billion yuan, down 2.74% year on year, up 2.35% month on month.
Toll revenue is still under pressure, and the year-on-year decline narrowed in Q3. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved toll revenue (tax included) of 7.569 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.44%; among them, the core production of the Jiqing Expressway achieved toll revenue (tax included) of 2.445 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.62%, mainly affected by the opening and diversion of the Jiqing Central Line and the expansion of the intersection section. On a quarterly basis, in Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2024, the company achieved toll revenue (including tax) of 2.261, 2.395, and 2.912 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year decreases of 12.21%, 8.47%, and 2.42%, respectively.
In terms of other business, in the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved investment income of 0.966 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.25%; Rail Transit Group achieved cumulative operating income of 3.535 billion yuan and net profit of 0.328 billion yuan; and Information Group achieved operating income of 2.495 billion yuan and net profit of 0.144 billion yuan.
The construction project is progressing in an orderly manner, and it is planned to invest in the renovation and expansion of the Weilai Expressway. In the first three quarters of 2024, the Beijing-Taiwan Expressway Qiji section renovation and expansion project completed an investment of 1.986 billion yuan, with a total investment of 5.354 billion yuan; the Jihe Expressway renovation and expansion project completed an investment of 5.15 billion yuan, with a total investment of 14.095 billion yuan. The Changqing section (Yinjialin Interchange to Xiaoli Interchange) resumed two-way traffic on September 26. As of September 30, 2024, since the commencement of the Beijing-Taiwan Expressway Qihe-Jinan section renovation and expansion project, a total of 84% of the roadbed project has been completed, 60% of the pavement project has been completed, 83% of the bridge construction project has been completed, and 23% of the traffic safety project has been completed; since the commencement of the Jihe Expressway construction project has completed 99.99%, the pavement project has completed 98.22%, and the bridge culvert project has completed 98.69%. The housing construction project has completed 93.01%, the traffic safety project has completed 92.37%, the greening project has completed 85.5%, and the mechanical and electrical engineering has been completed 72.15% . After the renovation and expansion project is completed and opened to traffic, it is expected to usher in a double increase in traffic volume and toll standards. At the same time, the combined extension of the toll period will help enhance the medium- to long-term growth of the company's main road and bridge operation business. Furthermore, the company's investment in the Weilai Expressway renovation and expansion project has been reviewed and approved by the board of directors, and it is recommended to focus on subsequent progress.
The dividend policy is steady, and dividend rates are still attractive. According to the “Shareholder Return Plan for the Next Five Years (2020-2024)” issued by the company, when the conditions for cash dividends are met, the profit distributed by the company in cash each year in 2020-2024 is not less than 60% of the consolidated net profit achieved in the current year. In 2020-2022, the company's cash dividend ratio was over 60%; when performance was under pressure due to the pandemic, the company guaranteed that the dividend per share would not decline. According to the “Notice on Promoting the Company's “Improving Quality, Efficiency, and Weighing Returns” issued by the company, the company will continue to do a good job in investor returns and maintain the stability and continuity of dividends in the future. Based on the company's cash dividend of 0.42 yuan (tax included) per share in 2023 and the closing price of 8.72 yuan on October 29, 2024, the estimated dividend rate is about 4.8%, which still has a certain allocation value.
Profit forecast, valuation and investment rating: Considering the pressure on toll revenue, the company is expected to achieve net profit of 3.271, 3.506, and 3.805 billion yuan (previous values: 3.588, 3.832, 4.231 billion yuan), with earnings per share of 0.68, 0.72, and 0.79 yuan, respectively. The current stock price is 8.72 yuan. The corresponding PE is 12.9X/12.1X/11.1X, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downturn risk, traffic flow decline risk, charging policy adjustment risk, risk of falling short of expectations in renovation and expansion progress, risk of investment returns falling short of expectations, risk of untimely usage information and data updates.
