投资建议：欧普作为国内家居照明龙头，长期深耕国内多元化渠道建设，研发夯实产品竞争力，规模持续领先市场。公司抓住行业智能化契机快速切入，升级产品与解决方案，优化门店形象与体验，修炼渠道效率和长期发展实力。同时，公司积极拓宽产品应用领域与销售市场，在商照领域积累丰富的行业照明解决方案及项目服务经验，并聚焦海外重点市场进行渠道布局，有望打造多条增长曲线。预计公司24-26 年归母净利润分别为8.6/9.4/10.4 亿元（前值8.8/9.9/11.3 亿元，考虑到公司Q3 收入、利润有所下滑对全年业绩有所下调），对应15x/14x/13x。Incident: 24Q1-Q3 achieved operating income of 5.07 billion yuan, -8.09% year over year; net profit to mother 0.62 billion yuan, -5.68% year over year; net profit without return to mother 0.5 billion yuan, -11.05% year over year. 24Q3 achieved operating income of 1.7 billion yuan, -13.62% year over year; net profit of 0.24 billion yuan, -9.69% year over year; net profit of non-return to mother 0.18 billion yuan, -15.57% year over year.
Revenue is under pressure in the short term, consolidating the competitive advantage of the channel. 2024Q3 achieved revenue of 1.7 billion yuan, -13.62% YoY. Despite short-term revenue pressure, the company actively explores the growth of various channels and refines medium- to long-term competitiveness: upgrading the store image for domestic and offline channels, seizing front-end market traffic, and further expanding market coverage through distribution channels; commercial licensing business promotes the implementation of smart street lighting solutions in core markets; optimizing e-commerce product structure to help the gross margin level rise steadily; and overseas business actively participates in infrastructure construction in countries along the “Belt and Road” to expand the brand's overseas influence.
The improvement in gross margin continued to be realized, and management resilience was evident. The company's 24Q3 gross profit margin was 42.0%, +1.1 pct. In the process of promoting lean, automation, digitalization and platformization in an orderly manner, the company achieved cost reduction and efficiency, driving the continuous implementation of gross margin improvements in recent years. The comprehensive cost rate has increased. The 24Q3 sales/management/R&D/finance expenses ratio was 19.5%/4.3%/4.5%/0.0%, respectively, +0.6/+1.0/0.8/+1.4pct. In addition, the company's impairment losses decreased year-on-year in the current quarter. Under the combined influence, 24Q3 achieved a net interest rate of 13.9% to mother, +0.6 pct year-on-year.
Investment advice: As a leading domestic home lighting company, OPP has long been deeply involved in the construction of diversified domestic channels, consolidated product competitiveness, and continued to lead the market in scale. The company seizes the opportunity of industry intelligence to quickly enter, upgrade products and solutions, optimize store image and experience, and cultivate channel efficiency and long-term development strength. At the same time, the company is actively expanding product application areas and sales markets, accumulating rich experience in industry lighting solutions and project services in the commercial licensing field, and focusing on key overseas markets for channel layout, which is expected to create multiple growth curves. The company's net profit for 24-26 is estimated to be 0.86/0.94/1.04 billion yuan, respectively (previous value 0.88/0.99/1.13 billion yuan. Considering the decline in the company's Q3 revenue and profit, the annual results were lowered), corresponding to 15x/14x/13x.
Risk warning: the risk of rising raw material prices; the risk of fluctuations in the real estate market; the risk of increased market competition; the expansion of overseas brands and categories falling short of expectations.
