三季度陆海风持续承压，税收减免到期带动所得税费用高增。3Q24 公司风电发电量为10.17 亿千瓦时，同比下降1.34%。其中，海风、陆风发电量分别为5.98、4.19 亿千瓦时，分别同比下降1.41%、1.24%。随着公司部分风场 “三免三减半”政策陆续到期，9M24公司所得税费用达3.09 亿元，同比增加1.81 亿元，对公司业绩产生较大影响。公司海风项目在手资源丰富，今年年初以来公司共获批长乐外海I 区北，马祖岛外海，宁德深水A区，长乐外海J 区4 个海风项目，总建设容量达2070 兆瓦。2024 年福建省内海风项目分配将于四季度启动，考虑到省内海风竞配格局改善，海风电价有望提升，有望保障新分配项目的收益能力。Key points of investment:
Incident: The company released its three-quarter report for 2024. From January to September, the company achieved revenue of 10.485 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.22%, and achieved net profit of 1.773 billion yuan to mother, an increase of 8.38% over the previous year. Among them, the company achieved net profit of 0.585 billion yuan in the third quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 16.60%. The main reason for the decline was the year-on-year decline in Q3's thermal power generation, and the company's performance was slightly lower than our previous expectations.
The growth rate of thermal power generation has declined. 9M24's thermal power generation capacity was 13.919 billion kilowatt-hours, up 0.40% year on year; 3Q24's thermal power generation was 5.434 billion kilowatt-hours. Among them, gas power, cogeneration, and coal-fired power generation were 1.682, 2.279, and 1.473 billion kilowatt-hours, respectively, with year-on-year changes of 9.66%, 0.08%, and -20.19%, respectively. On the cost side, the average spot price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal in Qinhuangdao in 3Q24 was 848 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton from 3Q23. Against the backdrop of relatively limited improvements in coal-fired costs and a sharp year-on-year decline in coal-fired power generation, the thermal power sector may slow down the company's overall performance growth rate.
Land and sea winds continued to be under pressure in the third quarter, and the expiration of tax relief led to a high increase in income tax expenses. 3Q24's wind power generation was 1.017 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year decrease of 1.34%. Among them, the generation capacity of sea wind and land wind was 0.598 and 0.419 billion kilowatt-hours, respectively, down 1.41% and 1.24% year-on-year, respectively. As the “three exemptions and three halves” policy for some of the company's wind farms expired one after another, 9M24's income tax expenses reached 0.309 billion yuan, an increase of 0.181 billion yuan over the previous year, which had a great impact on the company's performance. The company's ocean wind project is rich in resources. Since the beginning of this year, the company has been approved for 4 seabreeze projects in Changle Offshore Area I North, Matsu Island Offshore, Ningde Deep Water Area A, and Changle Offshore Zone J, with a total construction capacity of 2,070 megawatts. In 2024, the distribution of inland sea wind projects in Fujian Province will begin in the fourth quarter. Considering the improvement in the inland sea wind competition pattern in the province, the price of offshore wind power is expected to increase, which is expected to guarantee the profitability of the newly distributed projects.
The project reserves are diverse, and sufficient funds guarantee the project construction capacity. According to the plan, the company will control the operation and construction of 15 million kilowatts of electricity generation by the end of 2025. Currently, the company has many high-quality assets. Currently, it is currently drawing funds from Magnolia, Huashan, and Dongtian's savings, a total of 4.0 GW, and 1.32 GW of Dongqiao Thermal Power Phase 1. At the same time, Quanhui Petrochemical Phase II has also been approved for 1.3 GW. In terms of capital, as of now, 9M24 has an active capital of 5.2 billion yuan, and plans to raise no more than 3.9 billion yuan through the issuance of new convertible bonds to provide financial guarantees for the development of Quanhui 2x660 MW ultra-supercritical cogeneration projects and Magnolia savings projects.
Under the interest rate cut cycle, falling capital costs can further reduce the company's financial pressure. 9M24's financial expenses were 0.384 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.2%.
Profit forecast and rating: We maintain the company's net profit forecast for 2024-2026 to 3.039, 3.301, and 3.771 billion yuan. The company's current stock price is 8, 8, and 7 times PE, respectively, below the industry average, and maintains a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: New energy development progress falls short of expectations, incoming wind conditions are weaker than expected, risk of falling electricity prices, risk of rising coal prices
