2024 three-quarter report results: 2024Q3 net profit to mother +24.2% YoY in the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 35.51 billion yuan, an increase of 8.14%; net profit to mother was 1.41 billion yuan, +20.9% YoY; net profit to mother was 1.17 billion yuan, +20.9% YoY. At the same time, based on the principle of prudence, the company and its subsidiaries carried out a comprehensive inventory and impairment test of assets up to September 30, 2024, to calculate impairment preparations for assets where impairment losses may occur. The proposed asset impairment preparation will reduce the company's net profit attributable to listed companies by 0.127 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024. Net cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters of 2024 was $3.213 billion, +111.6% YoY.

2024Q3:24Q3 achieved operating income of 12.26 billion yuan, +8.84% year over year, realized net profit of 0.37 billion yuan, +24.2% year over year, and realized net profit of 0.34 billion yuan without return to mother, +88.4% year on year.

Refined management and operation, core costs continue to decline

The first three quarters of 2024:1) Single ticket express delivery business revenue was 2.06 yuan/ticket, down 13.9 year on year; 2) Single ticket sorting cost was 0.30 yuan, down 19.1% year on year; single ticket transportation cost was 0.38 yuan, down 226.8% year on year; single ticket cost was 0.09 yuan, down 33.4% year on year. 3) Net profit from a single ticket was 0.08 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3%. In 2024, the company continued to strengthen internal management, optimize operational efficiency, control expenses and increase efficiency. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company's four expenses decreased by 0.271 billion yuan, a decrease of 15% over the previous year. 4) The business volume was 16.943 billion units in the first three quarters of 2024, +27.7% year-on-year.

24Q3:1) Although price competition in the industry has slowed down since 2024, the off-season is still intense. According to monthly operating data disclosed by the company, we estimate that 24Q3 single-ticket express revenue was about 1.99 yuan, down 10.4 from the previous year.

2) Q3 single ticket sorting cost was 0.28 yuan, down 18% year on year; single ticket transportation cost was 0.36 yuan, -25.4% year on year; single ticket cost was 0.08 yuan, -32.4% year on year. 3) 24Q3 achieved net profit of 0.06 yuan per ticket, which was basically the same as the previous year. 4) 2024Q3 completed 6.019 billion units of business, +23.7% year-on-year.

The peak season is here, pay attention to the continuation of subsequent price increases

According to monitoring data from the State Post Office, from October 21 to 23, the national postal express industry collected about 1.92 billion express parcels, an increase of 48.7% over the previous year; the delivery of express parcels was about 1.655 billion pieces, an increase of 29.5% over the previous year. Among them, 0.729 billion express parcels were collected on October 22, a year-on-year increase of 74.0%, setting a new single-day business volume record. At the same time, the 2024 Double Eleven campaign began early. It is recommended to pay attention to the pace of price increases during the subsequent peak season of the industry.

Profit forecasting

Although price competition in the industry has eased since 2024 compared to 2023, express delivery prices in some regions have declined year-on-year, and the management of superimposed company outlets needs to be further improved. We expect the net profit of Yunda Co., Ltd. to be 1.98, 2.41, and 2.87 billion yuan respectively in 2024 to 2026, corresponding to PE of 12.2 times, 10.0 times, and 8.4 times, respectively, maintaining a “gain” rating.

Risk warning

There are downside risks to the economy, the industry's growth rate is lower than expected, and the express delivery price war is worsening.