24Q3 公司业绩持续承压，单三季度收入为4053 万元（yoy-49%），归母净利润为259 万元（yoy-92%）。对于收入端的下滑，我们认为主要系：1）移动通信等行业的投资节奏和需求依旧处于周期底部；2）对于部分有效需求，从需求到订单再到收入的转化出现不畅。利润端，受益于产品聚焦高端的特性，公司24Q3 毛利率维持在较高水平（66.53%），但较2023 年同期有所下滑（-2.40pcts），我们认为主要系信号源等新产品占收入比重提升所致。另一方面，由于公司仍处于产品矩阵和销售渠道的完善阶段，各项费用率有所上升，其中研发投入延续增长趋势，2024 年前三季度公司研发费用为5088 万元，同比增长20.93% ， 研发费用率为41.94%，较2023 年同期提升16.71pcts。Incident Overview
On October 29, Kun Heng Shunwei released the report for the third quarter of 2024. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 0.121 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.23%; realized net profit of 16.5911 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 68.91%; profit after deducting non-return net profit of 9.7841 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 79.71%.
24Q3 performance continued to be under pressure, and contract liabilities showed positive signs
24Q3's performance continued to be under pressure. Revenue for the third quarter was 40.53 million yuan (yoy -49%), and net profit to mother was 2.59 million yuan (yoy -92%). Regarding the decline on the revenue side, we think it is mainly due to: 1) the investment pace and demand in industries such as mobile communications are still at the bottom of the cycle; 2) for some effective demand, the transformation from demand to orders to revenue is poor. On the profit side, benefiting from the high-end nature of the product, the company's 24Q3 gross margin remained high (66.53%), but declined from the same period in 2023 (-2.40pcts). We believe this is mainly due to the increase in revenue share of new products such as signal sources. On the other hand, since the company is still in the stage of improving its product matrix and sales channels, various cost rates have risen. Among them, R&D investment continued to grow. The company's R&D expenses for the first three quarters of 2024 were 50.88 million yuan, an increase of 20.93% over the previous year, and the R&D expenses rate was 41.94%, an increase of 16.71 pcts over the same period in 2023.
In terms of balance sheet, as of 24Q3, the company's contract debt was 10.09 million yuan, an increase of 678% over the previous year, the highest level in history. We believe that the higher contractual debt indicates that the company's downstream demand has recovered at the bottom, showing a positive sign. According to the semi-annual report, the company's various product lines have been introduced and developed well. 1) The application of the company's leading product, wireless channel simulators, in satellite communications continues to expand; 2) the customer base of signal sources continues to expand, customer recognition continues to increase, and batch orders and market opportunities continue to grow; 3) spectrum analyzers have steadily penetrated, making important breakthroughs among typical customers in some industries.
The commercialization of 5G-A is advancing, and the performance contribution in the satellite field is showing an increasing trend. With the promotion of domestic 5G-A commercialization and pre-development of 6G technology, we expect that two new applications in 5G-A, low-orbit satellites and synergy will gradually emerge. 1) In terms of low-orbit satellites: According to the semi-annual report, with the accelerated development of low-orbit satellite constellation construction, related test and simulation requirements have also shown a rapid growth trend. At present, the company's various test and simulation instruments and solutions have been used in the simulation testing process for multiple users in the satellite Internet industry chain. The application of related scenarios has been further deepened, the customer base continues to expand, and the performance contribution in the satellite field is showing a continuous growth trend. 2) In terms of integrated sensing: The company will launch a new generation of wireless channel simulators to conduct research on relevant test and simulation technology around technical directions such as the integration of heaven and earth and the integration of synesthesia, and provide a laboratory simulation and verification environment.
Investment advice:
Kun Heng Shunwei is a pioneer in the field of high-end radio testing and measurement in China. The company's products focus on the high-end market, maintain high R&D investment, continue to launch new products, open up market space, and drive medium- to long-term performance growth. We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 0.244/0.356/0.479 billion yuan, respectively, and net profit to mother 0.061/0.096/0.132 billion yuan, respectively. Maintaining the buy-A investment rating, the 6-month target price is 31.6 yuan, which is equivalent to a dynamic price-earnings ratio of 40 times in 2025.
Risk warning: 1) Risk of new product development falling short of expectations; 2) risk of limited supply of upstream raw materials and devices; 3) risk of market and channel development falling short of expectations; 4) risk of downstream market demand falling short of expectations.
