Q3 公司商品坯材销量同比-3.10%，预计Q4 商品坯材销量同比+6.02%：公司2024 年计划钢材销量为5222 万吨，前三季度实现商品坯材销量3850 万吨，其中Q3 商品坯材销量 1299 万吨，同比-3.10%，环比+0.01%，预计第四季度公司商品坯材销量为1372 万吨，同比+6.02%，环比+5.58%。Incident: The company achieved operating income of 242.856 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, -4.91% year-on-year, and realized net profit to mother of 5.882 billion yuan, or -29.56% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, revenue was 79.605 billion yuan, -6.53% YoY, -3.44%, and net profit to mother 1.338 billion yuan, -64.78% YoY and -48.92% YoY.
The Q3 industry suffered serious losses. The company's profit per ton of steel exceeded the industry average of 296 yuan/ton: in 2024, the total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was -33.8 billion yuan, the loss per ton of steel was 142 yuan/ton, while Q3 Baosteel's profit per ton of steel was 153 yuan/ton, which is 296 yuan/ton higher than the industry average.
2024Q3's free cash flow has been at a medium to high level since 2017: the average free cash flow of the company in a single quarter from 2017 to now is 4.431 billion yuan, of which the company's free cash flow in Q3 2024 was 5.747 billion yuan.
Q3's commercial billet sales volume is -3.10% year-on-year, and Q4 commercial billet sales are expected to be +6.02% year over year: The company plans to sell 52.22 million tons of steel in 2024, and achieved commercial blank sales volume of 38.5 million tons in the first three quarters, of which Q3 commercial billet sales volume is 12.99 million tons, -3.10% YoY and +0.01% month-on-month. The company's commercial billet sales are expected to be 13.72 million tons in the fourth quarter, +6.02% YoY and +5.58% YoY.
The average sales price of Q3's plate and strip was -5.96% month-on-month, and the average sales price of pipes was -1.46% month-on-month: in 2024, Q3's board and strip sales volume was 11.65 million tons, -0.34% month-on-month, -2.27% year-on-year, with an average selling price of 4277 yuan/ton, -5.96% month-on-month and -7.18% year-on-month; pipe sales volume was 0.43 million tons, -6.52% month-on-month, -10.42% month-on-month, and the average price was 6995 yuan/ton, -1.46% month-on-month, -1.46% month-on-month Ratio -1.85%.
The company's product structure continued to be optimized, and the share of export sales reached a record high in the first three quarters: the company's “1+1+N” products sold 22.55 million tons in the first three quarters, an increase of 2.23 million tons. Among them, sales of oriented silicon steel increased 27.5% year on year, achieving 10 world premieres, including low iron loss and low noise oriented silicon steel B20R070-LM; in addition, the company vigorously exploited overseas markets and actively seized export opportunities. The export sales ratio reached a record high of 4.66 million tons in the first three quarters.
The company repurchased shares with nearly 3 billion yuan of its own capital, demonstrating confidence in long-term development: as of October 15, 2024, the company had repurchased 0.405 billion shares with its own capital, accounting for about 1.84% of the total share capital. The highest repurchase price was 7.10 yuan/share, the lowest repurchase price was 5.57 yuan/share, the average repurchase price was 6.16 yuan/share, and the total capital used was 2.492 billion yuan (excluding transaction fees).
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: Due to falling downstream demand in the steel industry, we lowered Baosteel's 2024-2026 net profit forecast of 19.79%, 26.88%, and 29.00% to 10.139, 10.642, and 12.05 billion yuan respectively. As the industry leader, Baosteel Co., Ltd. is expected to continue to optimize its product structure in the future and maintain the company's “gain” rating.
Risk warning: The decline in industry profits has led to fierce competition among steel companies, leading to a decline in steel prices; raw material prices have risen.
