公司Q3 收入环比下滑6.82%，预计主要受销量下滑拖累较多，Q3 全国水泥产量环比/同比分别-7.3%/-11.9%，我们预计公司Q3 自产水泥销量同比或个位数下滑。价格方面，我们测算Q3 华东水泥均价环比/同比分别-0.9%/-0.2%，9 月底开始长三角沿江熟料价格计划推涨100 元/吨，截止10月25 日华东水泥价格已提高至426 元/吨，较Q3 底部上涨81 元/吨。公司Q3 归母净利润环比增长2.71%，预计主要系成本下降影响，Q3 煤炭价格环比/同比分别-0.04%/-2.09%，同时公司具备较优的成本优势，吨成本普遍优于同行30 元左右。9 月底以来华东地区水泥出货率持续提升，库存同步优化，截止10 月25 日出货率/库容比分别为64%/63%，较9 月底分别+5pct/-5pct。公司作为水泥龙头，我们预计公司在此轮价格推涨中意愿较强，经营策略或已开始转变，为涨价持续性提供了支撑。近期财政部提出化债，有望加速基建实物工作量的转化，从而提振水泥需求，叠加未来供给端紧缩力度加大预期，我们预计Q4 及明年水泥业绩或有较大改善弹性。The company achieved net profit of 1.873 billion yuan in the third quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 15.13%
The company released its quarterly report for the third quarter of '24. It achieved revenue/net profit to mother of 68.15/5.198 billion yuan in the first three quarters, or -31.27%/-40.05% year-on-year, and achieved net profit without return to mother of 4.879 billion yuan in the first three quarters, or -40.18% year-on-year. Among them, Q3 achieved revenue/net profit to mother of 22.585/1.873 billion yuan in a single quarter, -32.89%/-15.13% YoY, after deducting non-attributable net profit of 1.694 billion yuan, or -15.23% YoY.
Q3 net profit to mother increased month-on-month, optimistic about improving flexibility in Q4 and next year's results
The company's Q3 revenue fell 6.82% month-on-month, which is expected to be mainly driven down by the decline in sales. In Q3, the country's cement production was -7.3%/-11.9% month-on-month, respectively. We expect the company's self-produced cement sales to decline year over year or by single digits. In terms of price, we estimate that the average price of East China cement in Q3 was -0.9%/-0.2% month-on-year. Starting at the end of September, the price of clinker along the Yangtze River Delta is planned to increase by 100 yuan/ton. By October 25, the price of East China cement had risen to 426 yuan/ton, up 81 yuan/ton from the bottom of Q3. The company's net profit for Q3 increased by 2.71% month-on-month, mainly due to lower costs. Q3 coal prices were -0.04%/-2.09% month-on-year respectively. At the same time, the company has a superior cost advantage, and the cost per ton is generally better than that of its peers. Since the end of September, the cement shipment rate in East China has continued to increase, and inventories have been optimized simultaneously. As of October 25, the shipping rate/storage ratio was 64%/63%, respectively, +5pct/-5pct compared to the end of September. As a cement leader, we expect the company to be more willing in this round of price increases, and its business strategy may have begun to change, providing support for the continuation of price increases. Recently, the Ministry of Finance proposed debt, which is expected to accelerate the transformation of physical infrastructure workload, thereby boosting demand for cement, compounding expectations that supply-side contraction will increase in the future. We expect cement performance to improve significantly in Q4 and next year.
Gross margin increased month-on-month, and cash flow was significantly optimized
The company's overall gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 19.54%, +1.21pct year on year. Among them, the overall gross profit margin for the Q3 quarter was 20.78%, +4.60/+0.82pct yoy, respectively. The cost ratio for the first three quarters was 9.93%, +2.53 pct year on year. Among them, the sales/management/ R&D/finance expenses ratio was +0.87/+1.72/-0.02/-0.04 pct year on year, which ultimately achieved a net interest rate of 7.70% and -1.47 pct year on year. The Q3 net profit margin in a single quarter was 8.24%, +1.50/month-on-month +0.42pct. The balance ratio at the end of 24Q3 was 21.46%, +1.04pct year on year. Net operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 10.348 billion yuan, +0.647 billion yuan year on year, revenue ratio +4.01pct year on year reached 118.58%, and current payment ratio of -10.06 pct year on year reached 100.77%.
The leader has a significant scale advantage and maintains a “buy” rating
By the end of the first half of the year, the company had a clinker production capacity of 0.274 billion tons, cement production capacity 0.399 billion tons, aggregate production capacity 0.151 billion tons, commercial concrete production capacity of 44.6 million cubic meters, and an installed capacity of 545 MW of optical storage power generation. The scale advantage was obvious. Considering that Q4 Huadong Cement is still expected to continue to rise in price, the company's 24-26 net profit forecast was raised to 9.6/11.6/13.9 billion yuan (previous value 8.4/10.5/12 billion yuan). Referring to comparable companies, the company was given 0.9 times PB for 24 years, corresponding to a target price of 32.47 yuan, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Demand for cement falls short of expectations, price increases fall short of expectations during peak season, rising coal costs, etc.
