维持“增持”评级：维持公司 2024~2026 年 EPS 至 0.77/0.87/0.96元。参考行业可比公司估值并考虑到公司作为火电行业龙头具备估值溢价，维持目标价11.10 元，维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
The company's 3Q24 performance was slightly lower than expected due to impairment. Coal and electricity operations were steady, and new energy sources resumed growth.
Key points of investment:
Maintain the “Overweight” rating: Maintain the company's 2024-2026 EPS to 0.77/0.87/0.96 yuan. The reference industry is comparable to the company's valuation, and considering that the company, as a leader in the thermal power industry, has a valuation premium, maintains a target price of 11.10 yuan, and maintains an “increase” rating.
The 3Q24 results fell short of previous expectations. The company's revenue from 1 to 3Q24 was 188.4 billion yuan, -3.6% YoY; net profit to mother was 10.4 billion yuan, -17.1% YoY. The company's 3Q24 revenue was 65.6 billion yuan, +0.5% year over year; net profit to mother was 2.96 billion yuan, or -52.7% year over year, lower than our previous expectations.
Q3 depreciation dragged down performance, and the coal and power business improved month-on-month. The year-on-year decline in the company's 3Q24 performance was mainly due to: 1) the company's 3Q24 net income of 0.26 billion yuan, the year-on-year -2.54 billion yuan, mainly due to the company's high 3Q23 investment income base (the company obtained one-time investment income by disposing of Sichuan energy development in 3Q23); 2) the company's 3Q24 asset impairment -1.19 billion yuan, -1.11 billion yuan year on year. The company's domestic coal-fired sector profit remained high in 3Q24, with a total domestic coal sector profit of 2.59 billion yuan, -9.0%; during the same period, the total electricity profit of the domestic coal-fired sector was 0.024 yuan/kilowatt-hour, -0.002 yuan/kilowatt-hour, and +0.009 yuan/kilowatt-hour (we estimate that the total electricity profit of the domestic coal-fired sector in 3Q24 was 0.031 yuan/kilowatt-hour, +0.016 yuan/kilowatt-hour compared to the previous month). The company sold 107.7 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity in 3Q24, -0.3% year-on-year and +37.8% month-on-month. The company's financial expenses for 3Q24 were 1.98 billion yuan, -0.36 billion yuan year-on-year. The company's 3Q24 credit impairment was 0.12 billion yuan, +0.11 billion yuan year-on-year.
The amount of new energy electricity continued to rise, and profits resumed positive growth in the third quarter. The company's domestic electricity sales volume in 3Q24 was 130.6 billion kilowatt-hours, +3.4% year-on-year; we estimated that feed-in electricity prices for the same period were 0.492 yuan/kilowatt-hour, -1.6% year-on-year. The company's 3Q24 new energy feed-in capacity was 13.6 billion kilowatt-hours, +41.3% year-on-year; of these, wind/photovoltaic feed-in electricity volume was 7.95/5.69 billion kilowatt-hours during the same period, +25.6%/+71.1% year-on-year. The company's 3Q24 new energy project profit resumed positive growth: the total profit of the 3Q24 new energy sector was 2.36 billion yuan, +58.3% year over year; of these, total wind power/photovoltaic profit was 1.17/1.19 billion yuan during the same period, +75.7%/+44.2% year over year. We estimate that the total electricity profit of the company's 3Q24 wind power sector was 0.147 yuan/kilowatt-hour, +0.042 yuan/kilowatt-hour compared to the previous year, and wind power profitability has recovered. The company added 5.3 GW of new energy installed in the 1st to 3Q24, of which 2.2 GW of new energy was added in 3Q24.
Risk warning: New energy installations fall short of expectations, coal prices exceed expectations, large deductions, etc.
