单Q3 福清和海南发电下滑明显，影响核电出力表现：3Q2024，海南核电上网电量同比下降19.1%，主要是因为受台风“摩羯”影响，海南等地出现强风雨天气，配合电网线路检修降功率，发电同比减少。福清核电同比下降17.5%，主要是因为4 号机组小修，目前小修已结束。单Q3 福清和海南发电下滑明显，核电上网电量同比下降5.6%。1Q-3Q2024，核电上网电量同比下降2.79%。目前，公司控股核电在建及核准待建机组18 台，装机容量20.64GW，预计四季度公司漳州能源1 号机组投产。考虑到新机组的投产以及台风、小修等短期扰动因素的解除，2025 年公司核电上网电量预计向好。Key points of investment:
Incident: The company released its 2024 three-quarter report. 1Q-3Q2024 achieved operating income of 56.986 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.60%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 8.934 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.22%. On a quarterly basis, 3Q2024's revenue in a single quarter was 19.545 billion yuan, down 1.25% year on year; net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 3.052 billion yuan, down 7.10% year on year.
Revenue increased steadily by 1.6% in the first three quarters, and net profit to mother fell 4.22% year on year: 1Q-3Q2024, the company's feed-in electricity volume increased by 2.92% year on year; due to falling market-based electricity prices, the company's operating income increased less than the increase in electricity volume, which was 1.6% year on year. Due to 1Q-3Q2024, the increase in the company's revenue was lower than the increase in costs and the year-on-year increase in income tax payments, etc., and the company's net profit to mother fell 4.22% year on year. On a quarterly basis, 3Q2024's feed-in electricity volume fell slightly by 0.3% year on year, and the company's revenue and net profit to mother declined in the third quarter of a single quarter. Furthermore, as of 3Q2024, the company's balance ratio decreased by 0.23pct year on year.
In Q3, power generation in Fuqing and Hainan declined significantly, affecting nuclear power output performance: 3Q2024, Hainan's feed-in electricity volume fell 19.1% year on year, mainly due to strong wind and rain in Hainan and other places due to typhoon “friction”. In line with grid line maintenance and power reduction, power generation declined year on year. Fuqing Nuclear Power declined by 17.5% year-on-year, mainly due to minor repairs to Unit 4, which have now been completed. Electricity generation in Fuqing and Hainan declined significantly in Q3, and feed-in nuclear power fell 5.6% year on year. 1Q-3Q2024, the feed-in electricity volume of nuclear power decreased by 2.79% year on year. Currently, the company holds 18 nuclear power units under construction and approval to be built, with an installed capacity of 20.64 GW. The company's Zhangzhou Energy Unit 1 is expected to be put into operation in the fourth quarter. Considering the commissioning of new units and the elimination of short-term disturbances such as typhoons and minor repairs, the company's nuclear power feed-in capacity is expected to improve in 2025.
New energy power generation increased rapidly, contributing to new performance: 3Q2024, the company's new energy feed-in power increased by 40.2% year on year; 1Q-3Q2024, feed-in power increased by 48.2% year on year. This is mainly due to the new energy generation being put into production. As of 3Q2024, the company held New Energy's installed capacity of 24.15 GW (wind 7.83 + light 16.32); Holding New Energy had an installed capacity of 15.05 GW (wind 3.20 + light 11.85). Among them, 1.78 GW of installed capacity was added in the third quarter of a single quarter. The company's 14th Five-Year Plan has an installed capacity of 30 GW of new energy. We expect that the company's 14th Five-Year Plan target may be exceeded.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: Considering Fuqing Power Generation's two minor repairs in the first three quarters, Hainan Power Generation's maintenance due to typhoon “friction”, and the decline in market-based electricity prices, we lowered the original forecast. The net profit of the company is expected to be 107.16, 119.21, and 12.887 billion yuan respectively in 24-26 (114.64, 124.11, and 13.455 billion yuan in 24-26), and the corresponding PE is 18.2/16.4/15.2 times, respectively. Maintain a “hold” rating.
Risk warning: Risk of project construction falling short of expectations; policy risk; risk of nuclear power safety accidents; risk of information delays or untimely updates of public data used in research reports.
