盈利水平改善，投资收益增长。前三季度公司毛利率为14.65%，同比+3.89pct；净利率为7.07%，同比+2.55pct。销售/管理/研发/财务费率分别为0.1%/1.73%/0.01%/4.42%，同比0pct/+0.07pct/0pct/-0.37pct。公司参股宁德核电获取稳定投资收益，前三季度实现投资收益20.61 亿元，同比+15.6%。Datang Power released its 2024 three-quarter report. In the first three quarters, it achieved operating income of 90.986 billion yuan, +0.4% year over year; net profit to mother was 4.429 billion yuan, +56.22% year over year.
Q3 Revenue performance grew steadily. The company achieved operating income of 90.986 billion yuan in the first three quarters, +0.4% year on year; net profit to mother was 4.429 billion yuan, +56.22% year over year. The increase in performance mainly benefited from the company's active fuel supply and price control to generate efficient electricity, and the operating conditions continued to improve. Among them, 3Q24 achieved operating income of 32.676 billion yuan, +0.8% YoY; net profit to mother of 1.321 billion yuan, +0.24% YoY.
The amount of thermal power has been restored, the landscape continues to grow at a high rate, and feed-in electricity prices have declined. Due to the year-on-year increase in electricity demand in the whole society and the impact of hot weather, the company achieved 202.119 billion kilowatt-hours of feed-in electricity in the first three quarters, +4.1% over the same period last year. Among them, Q3 coal-fired power feed-in capacity was 55.814 billion kilowatt-hours, +1.5% year-on-year, and fuel engine feed-in electricity capacity was 6.321 billion kilowatt-hours, +12.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate was fixed compared to Q2. The feed-in electricity for wind power and photovoltaics was 3.408 and 1.755 billion kilowatt-hours, respectively, up 23.1% and 48.4% year-on-year, continuing the high growth trend. The hydroelectric feed-in electricity volume was 12.423 billion kilowatt-hours, a slight decrease over the previous year. In the first three quarters, the company's average feed-in price was 449.6 yuan/megawatt-hour, -3.98% year-on-year. It is estimated that the average feed-in price for Q3 was 429.43 yuan/megawatt-hour, -2.8% year-on-year and -4.5% month-on-month.
Profitability levels have improved, and investment returns have increased. The company's gross margin for the first three quarters was 14.65%, +3.89pct year on year; net margin was 7.07%, +2.55pct year on year. Sales/management/R&D/finance rates were 0.1%/1.73%/0.01%/4.42%, respectively, compared with 0pct/+0.07pct/0pct/-0.37pct. The company obtained stable investment income by participating in Ningde Nuclear Power. In the first three quarters, it achieved an investment income of 2.061 billion yuan, +15.6% over the same period last year.
Continuing to promote the low-carbon transition, installed scenery is expected to accelerate. In the first half of 2024, the company approved the wind power project with an approved capacity of 1.1093 million kilowatts and 3.6057 million kilowatts of photovoltaics; by the end of June, the company was constructing 3.4577 million kilowatts of wind power and 2.6654 million kilowatts of photovoltaics. As the projects are put into operation one after another, the company's performance is still expected to grow further.
Profit forecasting and valuation. Fuel costs are expected to remain low, and the company's thermal power performance is expected to continue to be released; the Dadu River consumption problem is expected to improve, and hydropower may rise sharply; and installed scenery is accelerating, which is expected to continue to contribute to performance growth. Maintain the company's 2024-2026 net profit forecast of 4.128, 5.54, and 6.116 billion yuan, with year-on-year increases of 202.4%, 34.2%, and 10.4%; the PE corresponding to the current stock price is 13.0x, 9.7x, and 8.7x, respectively, maintaining the “increase” rating.
Risk warning: Risk of rising fuel prices, risk of feed-in tariff fluctuations, poor landscape resources, falling short of expectations, and project acquisition and construction progress falling short of expectations.
