虽然面临铜价上涨的压力，但根据我们测算，公司覆铜板业务3Q24 毛利率约为22.3%（yoy：+1.0pp，qoq：+0.5pp，主要受益于公司覆铜板产品结构的改善以及公司通过策略性地采购原材料控制住了铜价对覆铜板成本的扰动），归母净利润约为3.8 亿元（yoy：+6%）；2）PCB 业务：我们测算公司PCB 业务3Q24 收入约为11.6 亿元（yoy：+51%，qoq：+11%），毛利率约为22.1%（yoy：+1.9pp，qoq：+4.0pp，主要受益于服务器高多层板需求增加以及产品结构的改善）。Shengyi Technology announced its 3Q24 financial report: achieved revenue of 5.12 billion yuan (yoy: +15%, mainly benefiting from 49% year-on-year increase in revenue for the consolidated PCB subsidiary Shengyi Electronics 3Q24); gross profit margin 22.9% (yoy:
+2.9pp, qoq: +1.1pp, mainly benefiting from the year-on-month improvement in the PCB business gross margin); although the company added about 0.16-0.17 billion yuan in equity incentive amortization expenses in 3Q24 (including copper clad plate business & PCB business equity incentive amortization expenses), it still achieved net profit of 0.44 billion yuan (yoy: +28%).
3Q24 review: The gross margin of copper-clad panels was not afraid of copper price disturbances, and the PCB product structure continued to improve, and the company achieved net profit of 0.44 billion yuan (yoy: +28%) to mother in 3Q24. Among them: 1) Copper-clad plate business:
Despite the pressure of rising copper prices, according to our estimates, the 3Q24 gross margin of the company's copper clad plate business was about 22.3% (yoy: +1.0pp, qoq: +0.5pp, mainly benefiting from the improvement of the company's copper-clad plate product structure and the company controlled the disturbance of copper prices on the cost of copper-clad plates through strategic procurement of raw materials), and the net profit to the mother was about 0.38 billion yuan (yoy: +6%); 2) PCB business: We estimate that the 3Q24 revenue for the company's PCB business was about 1.16 billion yuan ( yoy: +51%, qoq: +11%), gross margin of about 22.1% (yoy: +1.9pp, qoq: +4.0pp, mainly benefiting from increased demand for high multi-layer server boards and improved product structure).
4Q24 outlook: The copper-clad plate business is improving month-on-month, and the PCB business may accelerate performance delivery outlook 4Q24, 1) Copper-clad plate business: Although the company's copper-clad plate business still faces disturbances from adverse factors such as material cost pressure (which is reflected in the cost side of high-priced copper foil and glass cloth), we also see that demand for data centers and automobiles is still strong, and consumer demand has improved with the help of the national subsidy policy and “Double Eleven”, and the company's recent order acceptance rate has also accelerated. We also expect that the company will continue to advance the construction guarantee strategy in 4Q24, and that the revenue of the copper-clad plate business will also be stable month-on-month; at the same time, the company's high-speed copper-clad plate business is expected to accelerate and expand more overseas AI customers; 2) PCB business: As Shengyi Electronics' core customer Amazon AI server orders accelerate in 4Q24, we expect its product structure to improve further and net profit to increase significantly in 4Q24.
Raise the target price to $24.2 to maintain the “buy” rating
Considering that the AI customer expansion and product structure improvement progress of the company's PCB business was better than our expectations, we therefore raised the company's 2024/2025/2026 net profit to 1.84/2.26/2.81 billion yuan (previous value: 1.73/2.24/2.66 billion yuan); gave a target price of 24.2 yuan (previous value: 23.4 yuan), based on 26.0x 2025E PE (vs Comparable Company 16.1x 2025E PE (Wind & BBG)) The valuation premium mainly takes into account the company's leading edge in products, customers, and production capacity as a global leader in copper clad plates); maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: industry competition intensifies; raw material prices fluctuate; production capacity climbing and technological upgrading are slower than expected.
