费用率优化，盈利能力稳步提升：1）3Q24 毛利率31.3%，同比+0.1ppt；海尔持续推进数字化平台建设，在采购、研发、制造等多个环节提升协同效应，抵消了成本上行、内需疲软、海外竞争带来的负面压力，国内外毛利率同比均有小幅改善。2）费用率依然管控严格，3Q24 管理费用率、销售费用率同比-0.2ppt/-0.5ppt 至3.9%/15.0%，营销资源配置、仓储物流运营的效率进一步提升。3Q24 财务费用5356 万元，对比去年同期录得收益9758万元，主要由于此前美国市场高利率导致利息支出增加。3）截至3Q24 经营性净现金流入138.76 亿元，同比+5%，保持较好的经营质量。3Q24 results are in line with our expectations
The company announced results for the 1st to 3Q24:1) Revenue of 202.971 billion yuan, +2.2% YoY; net profit to mother 15.154 billion yuan, +15.3% YoY. 2) Corresponding to 3Q24 revenue of 67.349 billion yuan, YoY +0.5%, net profit to mother 4.734 billion yuan, +13% YoY. 3) The performance is in line with our expectations.
Domestic sales have gradually picked up due to trade-in, and export sales are still stable: 1) Domestic sales of home appliances have continued to weaken since 2Q24, and domestic retail sales of ice washing machines were -12%/-7%/-14% year-on-year in July (AVC data). Since August, trade-in stimulus policies have gradually been implemented in various provinces and cities in the country, driving a month-on-month recovery in the performance of major domestic appliances. According to AVC data, retail sales of refrigerators in August/September were +2%/+38% YoY, while retail sales of washing machines were -2%/+22% YoY. 2) Haier fully participated in this subsidy with its perfect channel layout across the country. At the same time, the high-end brand Casadi benefited from the subsidy performance better than the Haier brand. We estimate that Haier's domestic sales performance has continued to pick up month-on-month since September. 3) Overseas markets continue to increase their market share. 3Q24 Whirlpool and Electrolux North America revenue were -4.3%/-3.9% year-on-year. Haier GEA performed better than its competitors, and its market share increased steadily. Emerging markets are deepening the construction of local supply chains, and South Asia's revenue in 3Q24 was more than 30% year-on-year.
Cost ratio optimization and steady increase in profitability: 1) 3Q24 gross profit margin was 31.3%, +0.1ppt year on year; Haier continued to promote digital platform construction to enhance synergy effects in various aspects such as procurement, R&D, and manufacturing, offsetting negative pressure brought about by rising costs, weak domestic demand, and overseas competition. Domestic and foreign gross margins improved slightly year over year. 2) Expense rates are still strictly controlled. The 3Q24 management fee rate and sales expense ratio were -0.2pp/ -0.5ppt to 3.9%/15.0% year-on-year, further improving the efficiency of marketing resource allocation and warehousing and logistics operations. The financial expenses for 3Q24 were 53.56 million yuan, compared with the revenue of 97.58 million yuan recorded in the same period last year, mainly due to the increase in interest expenses due to the previous high interest rates in the US market. 3) As of 3Q24, the net operating cash inflow was 13.876 billion yuan, +5% year-on-year, maintaining good operating quality.
Development trends
By integrating Rishun Logistics, the global business layout is being improved: 1) Haier announced that it intends to achieve 100% control of Rishun Logistics through fiduciary voting rights. We believe it is expected to further improve the efficiency of Haier's domestic operations. 2) The domestic market promotes retail model reform, increases terminal touchpoints and brand exposure, improves digital platforms, and enhances integrated delivery service capabilities across the country; the product side continues to reduce the number of SKUs, increase the output of a single model, and speed up the turnover of inventory capital. 3) In overseas markets, Haier continues to promote organizational changes in the European market, simplify resource docking processes between headquarters, regional platforms, and countries, and further optimize cost space to improve operating efficiency.
Profit forecasting and valuation
We have remained largely unchanged in our 2024/2025 earnings forecast. Current A Shares/H Shares/D Shares correspond to 15.0x/13.3x/6.6x 2024e P/E. A/H/D shares maintained an outperforming industry rating. As a result of recent national supplements boosting market sentiment, the A/H/D target price was raised by 18%/12%/17% to 37.8 yuan/37.0 HKD/2.1 euros, corresponding to 18.6x/16.5x/8.0x 2024e P/E for A/H/D stocks, with an upward space of 24%/24%/19%.
risks
Global business risk; risk of demand fluctuation; risk of increased competition; risk of acquisition failure.
