中标广东阳江帆石一500kV送出海缆订单，体现公司的竞争优势。广东中广核阳江帆石一项目是国内第二个招标的500kV交流送出海上风电项目，合计规模1GW，此前该项目受审批推迟影响开工周期有所推后。此前公司于2022 年初中标国内第一个招标的500kV交流送出海风项目——广东粤电阳江青洲一、二项目送出缆订单，本次公司以合计17.09 亿元中标阳江帆石一全部500kV送出海缆（含敷设）订单，继续体现公司在超高压海缆领域的强竞争优势。我们测算本次公司中标的阳江帆石一海缆价格约折合900万元/公里（剔除敷设），虽然略低于此前阳江青洲一、二项目价格，但我们预计该订单仍然有望实现较强盈利能力，增强公司2025 年业绩的确定性。The company's recent situation
The results of the first and second orders for the 500kV submarine cable (including installation) for the Guangdong CGN Yangjiang Fanshi Project were announced one after another: Dongfang Cable won the bid for 0.909 billion yuan1 and 800 million yuan2 respectively.
reviews
It won the bid for a 500kV submarine cable order for Yangjiang Fanshi in Yangjiang, Guangdong, reflecting the company's competitive advantage. The Guangdong CGN Yangjiang Fanshi Project is the second 500kV AC offshore wind power project to be tendered in China, with a total scale of 1 GW. Previously, the project was delayed due to delays in approval. Previously, in early 2022, the company won the bid for the first domestic 500kV AC transmission seabreeze project, the Guangdong Yuedian Yangjiang Qingzhou 1 and 2 project. This time, the company won the bid for all 500kV submarine cable (including installation) orders for Yangjiang Fanshiyi with a total of 1.709 billion yuan, which continues to reflect the company's strong competitive advantage in the field of ultra-high voltage submarine cables. We estimate that the price of the Yangjiang Fanshi 1 Sea Cable won by the company this time is about 9 million yuan/km (excluding installation). Although it is slightly lower than the previous Yangjiang Qingzhou 1 and 2 project prices, we expect that this order will still be expected to achieve strong profitability and enhance the certainty of the company's 2025 performance.
The company has entered an upward cycle of new domestic orders. From the beginning of 2023 until the company won the submarine cable order for the Yangjiang Fanshi 1 project this month, the company's new domestic orders were weak for nearly 2 years, mainly due to the poor start pace of the downstream seabreeze project. In particular, the company's dominant Yangjiang market project continued to be approved slowly. However, as related projects enter the start-up period one after another, after the Yangjiang Fanshi 1 submarine cable order, we expect that the company will continue to receive a large number of domestic submarine cable orders in the next six months to a year.
Profit forecasting and valuation
We are optimistic about the company's new order fulfillment trend during the upward period of domestic and overseas offshore wind power, and keep the company's performance ratings and profit forecasts unchanged. The company's current stock price corresponds to 31.8 and 18.5 times the price-earnings ratio in 2024 and 2025. We will switch the valuation to 2025 and raise the company's target price by 21.9% to 66.47 yuan, corresponding 37.7 times the 2024 price-earnings ratio and 22.0 times the 2025 price-earnings ratio. There is 18.7% upside compared to the current stock price.
risks
The construction progress of the offshore wind power project fell short of expectations; the number of new orders fell short of expectations.
