3Q24 营业收入同环比持续增长，存货及合同负债稳健增长：公司3Q24 实现营业收入9.55 亿元，YoY+57.63%，QoQ+17%，同环比保持持续增长，主要原因为公司CMP 设备市场占有率不断提高，关键耗材及维保等业务规模逐步放量，同时晶圆再生及湿法设备收入逐步增加所致。截至2024 年9月30 日，公司存货达33.12 亿元，较2023 年末增长37.14%，我们认为主要原因为发出商品增长较快；截至2024 年9 月30 日，公司合同负债为15.05 亿元，较2023 年末增长13.33%，我们认为主要原因为公司新签订单快速增长。3Q24 results exceeded our expectations
The company announced 3Q24 results: The company achieved revenue of 0.955 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57.63%, and net profit to mother of 0.288 billion yuan, an increase of 51.74% year-on-year, higher than our expectations. The main reason was the company's enhanced profitability of CMP equipment and the company's ability to control costs.
Development trends
3Q24's revenue continued to grow year on month, and inventory and contract liabilities grew steadily: The company achieved revenue of 0.955 billion yuan, YoY +57.63%, and QoQ +17%, maintaining continuous growth. The main reason was the continuous increase in the company's CMP equipment market share, the gradual expansion of the business scale of key consumables and maintenance, and the gradual increase in revenue from wafer recycling and wet processing equipment. As of September 30, 2024, the company's inventory reached 3.312 billion yuan, up 37.14% from the end of 2023. We believe the main reason was the rapid increase in the number of products issued; as of September 30, 2024, the company's contract debt was 1.505 billion yuan, an increase of 13.33% over the end of 2023. We believe the main reason was the rapid increase in new orders signed by the company.
Net profit to mother continued to grow year on month, and profitability continued to increase: the company's 3Q24 gross margin reached 44.2%, QoQ+ 0.2ppt, net profit reached 0.288 billion yuan, YoY +51.74%, QoQ +24.97%, net profit margin 30.2%, QoQ+2ppt; net profit after deducting non-parent net profit reached 0.246 billion yuan, YOY +62.36%, QoQ +25.4%, of which the company's profit margin reached 25.8%, QoQ+1.7ppt The main reason for the month-on-month increase in capacity was the decline in R&D expenses by 2.6 ppt month-on-month as revenue scale increased.
The thinning equipment has been verified and is expected to benefit from the rapid growth of advanced packaging: According to the company announcement on September 19, 2024, the company's 12-inch precision wafer thinning machine Versatile-GP300 completed the first verification work, and the 12-inch wafer thinning and laminating all-in-one machine Versatile-GM300 has been sent to leading domestic packaging companies for verification. We believe that with the gradual verification and commercialization of the company's packaging equipment, the future is expected to benefit from rapid growth in advanced packaging fields such as Chiplet and HBM.
Profit forecasting and valuation
We kept the company's 2024/2025 revenue forecast of 3.498/4.436 billion yuan unchanged. Due to the increase in the profitability of the company's CMP equipment, we respectively raised the company's 2024/2025 net profit forecast by 10.9%/10.8% to 1.05/1.35 billion yuan. The current stock price corresponds to the company's 2024/2025 41.3/32.1x P/E. We used the P/E valuation method to value the company. Due to the upward trend in the semiconductor valuation center, we switched to 40xP/E in 2025 raised the company's target price by 36.4% to 228 yuan, corresponding to the company's 2024/2025 51.4/40x P/E. Compared with the current stock price, there is still 24.6% room to rise, maintaining an outperforming industry rating.
risks
Fab capital expenses have declined, new product development verification falls short of expectations, and component supply risks.
