盈利预测。我们认为，随AIGC 提振国内外高速光模块需求，同时电信和传统数通行业库存去化步入尾声，光通信行业有望保持长期快速发展。光迅科技在行业竞争格局中处于领先地位，业务有望维持稳定增长。我们预计公司2024-2026 年归母净利润分别为8.19、10.21、12.33 亿元，EPS 为1.03 元、1.29 元、1.55 元。参考公司历史估值及可比公司平均估值水平，给予公司2024年PE 区间40-50X，对应合理价值区间41.20-51.50 元，“优于大市”评级。Incident: The company released its quarterly report for the year 24, which greatly increased its profit compared to the same period. 24Q1-Q3 achieved revenue of 5.378 billion yuan, +24.29% year over year; net profit to mother 0.464 billion yuan, +12.26% year over year; deducted non-net profit of 0.454 billion yuan, +29.97% year over year. 24Q1-Q3 gross profit margin 23.71% (YoY +1.91pcts), net profit margin 8.63% (YoY -0.92pcts). Looking at Q3 alone, 24Q3 revenue was 2.268 billion yuan, +49.99% YoY, +24.68% month-on-month; net profit to mother 0.255 billion yuan, +45.76% YoY, +94.49% month-on-month; net non-net profit 0.248 billion yuan, +75.66% YoY, +85.57% month-on-month. 24Q3 gross profit margin 25.10% (YoY +3.19pcts, month-on-month +2.30pcts), net profit margin 11.26% (YoY -0.33pcts, month-on-month +4.04pcts).
Increase investment in R&D and sales, and improve stocking to meet demand. 24Q3's R&D expenses were 0.197 billion yuan, +55.05% YoY, +0.28pcts; Sales Expense Ratio 2.48%, +0.07pcts YoY; Management Expense Ratio 1.60%, YoY -0.99pcts; Financial Expense Ratio -0.91%, YoY +1.64pcts 24Q1-Q3 sales expenses were +49.45% year-on-year, mainly due to market development and increased resource investment. Inventory at the end of 24Q3 was 4.006 billion yuan, +102.73%; accounts payable was 2.377 billion yuan, +95.25%; notes payable were 1.158 billion yuan, +36.30% year over year; contract debt was 0.131 billion yuan, +65.74% year over year. 24Q3 operating cash flow-0.967 billion yuan, -477.12% YoY. The sharp increase in inventory and accounts payable and the decline in operating cash flow were mainly due to increased inventory purchases.
Production capacity efficiency continues to improve, and performance is expected to enter a rapid improvement channel. The company is expanding production and stocking according to the order plan. As the production capacity of high-speed optical modules in the new industrial park is gradually released, it is expected that with the improvement of efficiency, it will gradually reach full production, and revenue and profit are expected to continue to grow. The company's 800G optical modules have been shipped in batches, and production capacity is in the climbing stage; 1.6T optical modules already have the ability to deliver in small batches, and are advancing sample delivery and customer verification. During the CIOE in September, the company released the 1.6T OSFP224 DR8 optical module and launched products such as O-band DWDM optical modules, O-band rare earth-doped fiber amplifiers, and O-band Raman optical fiber amplifiers. At the same time, in ECOC, the company launched an air core fiber high power amplifier. The liquid-cooled/LPO/LRO optical module is to be unveiled at the North American OCP in October.
Profit forecast. We believe that as AIGC boosts demand for high-speed optical modules at home and abroad, and inventory removal in the telecommunications and traditional digital communication industries comes to an end, the optical communications industry is expected to maintain rapid long-term development. Guangxun Technology is in a leading position in the competitive landscape of the industry, and the business is expected to maintain steady growth. We expect the company's net profit for 2024-2026 to be 0.819, 1.021, and 1.233 billion yuan, respectively, and EPS of 1.03 yuan, 1.29 yuan, and 1.55 yuan. Referring to the company's historical valuation and the average valuation level of comparable companies, the company was given a 2024 PE range of 40-50X, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 41.20-51.50 yuan, which is “superior to the market” rating.
Risk warning. Industry demand is picking up and uncertainty, downstream manufacturers are expanding upstream, and industry competition is intensifying.