锂电池出货环比持续提升，盈利受一次性费用投入影响有所承压。受益下游电动工具需求持续回暖，公司3Q24 出货达到1.1-1.2 亿颗、环增18.5%，稼动率进一步提升至75-80%；价格方面，3Q 中上游材料仍有小幅降价，公司销售均价同步下调，我们测算ASP 5.5-5.6 元/颗、环降6-7%；盈利方面，得益于稼动率提升、我们估计3Q24 锂电池毛利率修复至20%，而净利方面，3Q 锂电池业务受到一次性费用影响：1）较多新项目转量产、带来短期研发费用攀升；2）淮安二期工厂搬迁，部分产品转线生产，带来物料、人工损耗提升；导致盈利环比有所下滑，我们测算3Q 锂电池单颗净利0.22-0.23 元、环比减少0.1-0.15 元，若加回非常规化的费用，我们测算单颗经营性利润或达0.5 元、环比改善显著。3Q24 results slightly lower than market expectations
The company announced 3Q24 results: revenue of 1.77 billion yuan, up 22.7% and 8.4%; net profit to mother of 0.115 billion yuan, up 86.2% and 18.5%; after deducting non-net profit of 0.11 billion yuan, up 175.2% and 43.5%; due to price cuts and one-time expenses in the 3Q24 lithium battery business, which dragged down profit performance, the company's performance was slightly lower than market expectations.
Development trends
Shipments of lithium batteries continued to increase month-on-month, and profits were under pressure due to one-time investment. Benefiting from the continued recovery in demand for downstream power tools, the company's 3Q24 shipments reached 0.11-0.12 billion units, and the operating rate further increased to 75-80%; in terms of price, the 3Q middle and upstream materials still had a slight price reduction, and the average sales price of the company was lowered simultaneously. We estimate that ASP 5.5-5.6 yuan/piece, down 6-7%; in terms of profit, thanks to the increase in operating rate, we estimate that the gross margin of 3Q24 lithium batteries was restored to 20%, while in terms of net profit, the 3Q lithium battery business was affected by one-time costs: 1) Compared Many new projects switched to mass production, leading to a rise in short-term R&D costs; 2) The relocation of the Huai'an Phase II factory led to an increase in material and labor losses; leading to a month-on-month decline in profit, we estimated that the net profit of a single 3Q lithium battery was 0.22-0.23 yuan, a decrease of 0.1-0.15 yuan month-on-month. If unregulated expenses are added, we estimate that the operating profit of a single unit may reach 0.5 yuan, which is a significant improvement over the previous month.
LED business profits continued to improve, and metal logistics business grew steadily. We estimate that the company's 3Q24LED business revenue was 0.44-0.45 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 10% +; benefiting from product structure improvements, the share of high-profit high-end products increased, and the LED profit center continued to move upward. We estimate that 3Q LED gross margin may reach 20% +; the metal logistics business 3Q24 revenue was 0.6-0.65 billion yuan, an increase of about 5% month-on-month, and the overall profit level remained steady.
Overall gross margin improved month-on-month, and cost investment increased during the period. Driven by profit recovery in the lithium battery and LED business, the company's 3Q24 comprehensive gross margin increased 7.4 ppt year on year and 3.3 ppt month over month, which was a significant improvement; the period cost ratio was 10.7%, 1.4 ppt year over year and 1.8 ppt month on month, mainly due to the impact of one-time cost investment in the lithium battery business.
Construction of the Malaysian plant is progressing steadily to support medium- to long-term business growth. The company is actively promoting overseas production capacity, and we expect the Malaysian plant to gradually enter mass production from 2Q25. 70-80% of the company's business exposure comes from overseas. We believe that overseas factories can help the company effectively avoid geopolitical risks, continue to expand overseas markets, and support the medium- to long-term growth of the company's lithium battery business.
Profit forecasting and valuation
Considering the impact of lithium battery price reduction and one-time cost investment, we lowered our 2024/2025 profit forecast by 12%/2% to 0.467/0.713 billion yuan. The recent market recovery and sector center recovery. We maintained the target price of 11 yuan and outperformed the industry rating. The current stock price corresponds to 23.0x/15.1xP/E in 2024/2025, and the target price corresponds to 27.1x/17.8x P/E in 2024/2025, with 18.0% upward space.
risks
Global demand for power tools fell short of expectations, raw material prices fluctuated, and increased market competition led to a decline in profits.
