维持“增持”评级。公司公布 2024年三季报，公司公告 2024年前三季度实现营收54.08 亿元/-9.37%，归母净利9.45 亿元/-42.15%。Introduction to this report:
The performance fell short of expectations, coal production and sales declined slightly, and the increase in volume reduction and cost affected profits. Results are expected to decline for the full year of '24, and the year-on-year pressure on performance is expected to ease in Q4.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an “Overweight” rating. The company announced the 2024 three-quarter report. The company announced that it had achieved revenue of 5.408 billion yuan/ -9.37% and net profit of 0.945 billion yuan/ -42.15% for the first three quarters of 2024.
Q3 achieved revenue of 1.515 billion yuan/-12.42%/-17.79% month-on-month, net profit of 0.186 billion yuan/-63.87% month-on-month, slightly lower than market expectations. The main reason was that volume reduction and cost increase exceeded expectations, and the 24-26 EPS was lowered to 1.01/1.22/1.46 (-0.40/-0.29/-0.21) yuan. According to Comparable Company's 2024 11.91x PE, the target price was maintained at 11.99 yuan Yuan, maintaining an “gain” rating.
Coal production and sales declined slightly, and the increase in volume reduction and superposition costs exceeded expectations, affecting profits. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company's raw coal production was 7.29 million tons/ +3.83%; commercial coal production was 5.63 million tons/ +1.08%; commercial coal sales were 5.69 million tons/ -1.06%. The Q3 Company produced 2.352 million tons of raw coal, -7.6% YoY/-1.94%; commercial coal production was 1.785 million tons, -9.7% YoY/-6.0% YoY; and commercial coal sales were 1.807 million tons, -7.7% YoY/-8.1% YoY. The average sales price for the first three quarters was 901 yuan/ton, -7.6%; the cost per ton was 572 yuan/ton, +14.8%; the gross profit per ton was 329 yuan/ton, which was -31% year over year, and the cost increase exceeded expectations. Among them, the Q3 sales price was 785 yuan/ton, -5% /month-on-month; the tonnage cost was 603 yuan/ton, +47.48% /month-on-month +8.6%; gross profit per ton was 183 yuan/ton, -56.3% /month-on-month. The company's Q3 costs have increased significantly, mainly due to the increase in equipment costs and labor costs. The reason for the increase in equipment costs is that the net value of equipment has increased due to the company's promotion of intelligent coal mine construction and the introduction of new equipment, and the increase in labor costs is due to an increase in remuneration payments.
The year-on-year pressure on performance is expected to ease in Q4. Considering that the company's coking coal and thermal coal are all dominated by Changxie, the pressure on the company's performance is expected to ease in 2024Q4. At the end of the year, with the gradual implementation of special bonds and the progress of localized bonds, demand for construction and construction is expected to recover one after another, which is expected to drive coal prices back to an upward channel.
The power generation business is gradually expanding. The company actively promotes the construction of comprehensive utilization of mine gas power generation, gas oxidation with low concentration gas, distributed photovoltaics, wind power generation and other projects. In the first half of the year, integrated gas utilization projects reduced carbon dioxide emissions by 51,000 tons and distributed photovoltaic power generation by 3.6684 million kilowatts.
Risk warning: coal prices fell beyond expectations; macroeconomic recovery fell short of expectations
