9M24 经营性现金流净额-307 亿元，同比多流出83 亿元，收/付现比分别为70.9%/77.0%，同比-3.63/-1.88pct。其中24Q3 经营性现金流净额-23亿元，同比少流出56 亿元，收/付现比分别为88.8%/91.0%，同比+4.02/-3.73pct。24Q3 末资产负债率74.7%，同比+0.19pct，环比-2.79pct，有息负债率13.1%，同比-0.71pct，环比-1.29pct。The company released three quarterly reports: 9M24 achieved revenue of 412.6 billion yuan, year-on-year net profit/deducted net profit of 6.831/5.623 billion yuan, year-on-year -16.53%/-29.26%, of which 24Q3 achieved revenue of 113.8 billion yuan, -14.37% year over year, net profit/net profit deducted from non-return mother 26.81/2.404 billion yuan, with net profit to mother significantly exceeding our expectations (1.579) billion yuan), mainly due to heavy depreciation in Q3 and a decrease in income tax expenses. We believe that the company's previous depreciation calculation was sufficient, and it is expected that in the future, it will benefit from increased debt and maintain the “increase in holdings”/“buy” ratings for A shares/H shares.
Depreciation surged and income tax expenses were reduced, and the 24Q3 net interest rate significantly increased 9M24's comprehensive gross profit margin by 9.04%, -0.18 pct year on year, 9.03% year on year, -0.09 pct year on year, and -0.89 pct month on month. The cost rate for the 9M24 period was 5.61%, +0.45pct year on year. Among them, the sales/management/R&D/finance expense ratios were +0.06/+0.27/-0.01/+0.12pct, respectively. The increase in the cost rate was mainly due to a decline in revenue. The cost rate during the 24Q3 period was 6.47%, +0.45pct year on year. 24Q3 depreciation rushed back 0.568 billion yuan; 23Q3 was an accrued loss of 0.932 billion yuan; 24Q3 income tax expenses were 0.237 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.73 billion yuan. Under the combined influence, 9M24's net interest rate was 1.66%, -0.10pct year on year, 2.36% for 24Q3, +1.63pct year on year, and +1.37pct month-on-month.
24Q3 Cash flow improved, and the interest-bearing debt ratio at the end of the period decreased
9M24 net operating cash flow was -30.7 billion yuan, an increase of 8.3 billion yuan year on year, and the payout ratio was 70.9%/77.0%, respectively, -3.63/-1.88pct year on year. Among them, 24Q3 net operating cash flow was -2.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.6 billion yuan. The payment/payout ratio was 88.8%/91.0%, respectively, +4.02/-3.73 pct. The balance ratio at the end of 24Q3 was 74.7%, +0.19pct year on year, -2.79pct month-on-month, interest-bearing debt ratio 13.1%, year-on-year -0.71 pct, and -1.29pct month-on-month.
Orders from overseas markets and emerging industries maintained relatively rapid growth
9M24 signed a new contract amount of 891.7 billion yuan, -9.2% year over year, of which 60.76 billion yuan was signed overseas, +85.2% year over year. Among 9M24's new project orders with a contract value of more than 50 million, the housing construction/infrastructure/metallurgy/other sectors in the four major segments each signed new 4194/137.8/121.9/137.8 billion yuan, compared with -14.6%/-22.8%/-2.1%/+22.7%. Emerging industries are growing rapidly.
Profit forecasting and valuation
We maintain the company's 24-26 net profit forecast of 7/6.3/6.4 billion yuan. Comparable A Shares/H Shares, the company's 25-year Wind agreed to have an average average of 8/3xPE. Considering the company's high ratio (impairment preparation/net profit) ratio, it is expected that the beneficiary flexibility of chemical bonds is better than comparable. At the same time, it is rich in mineral resources such as cobalt, nickel, copper, etc., and has good market value. A shares/H shares will be given 12/6xPE in 25 years, adjusted the target price of A/H shares to HK$3.66 (previous value of HK$3.37/HK$1.85), maintaining the “gain”/“buy” rating for A shares/H shares.
Risk warning: The growth rate of infrastructure investment has slowed, real estate recovery has fallen short of expectations, and resource prices have fallen beyond expectations.
