三季度投资收入同比翻倍，信用业务需求仍处于低位。1）投资业务，公司前三季度投资收益+公允价值变动损益同比+34.0%至218.30 亿元，其中单三季度同比+125.4%至98.8 亿元，2024Q3 沪深300/中证全债指数分别+16.07%/+1.24%，而2023Q3 分别-3.46%/+0.83%，股债市场表现均好于去年同期，特别是A 股市场在9 月下旬快速走强，预计公司权益相关的投资业务释放明显弹性；截至Q3 末金融资产头寸8,941 亿元，同比+24.9%。2）信用业务，三季度末公司融出资金、买入返售金融资产分别为1,134、408 亿元，同比分别-0.3%、-0.6%，根据公司三季报披露，融资融券利息收入减少及卖出回购利息支出增加是利息净收入大幅下滑的主要原因。Incident: CITIC Securities released its 2024 three-quarter report, achieving operating income and net profit of 46.142 and 16.799 billion yuan, respectively, +0.73% and +2.35% year over year, and ROE +0.11pct to 6.30% year over year. Among them, revenue and net profit attributable to mother for the third quarter were 15.958 and 6.229 billion yuan, +11.54% year on year, respectively.
The fee business continues to be under pressure, and the investment business is taking the lead in releasing flexibility. On the revenue side, brokerage, investment banking, asset management, interest, investment, and other revenue for the first three quarters were 71.54, 28.19, 74.79, 0.919, 21.83, and 5.941 billion yuan, respectively, -8.7%, +1.1%, -72.0%, +34.0%, +34.0%, and +3.2%, respectively; on the cost side, management expenses were -4.6%, 2.2%, 52.1%, and 4.0% year-on-year, respectively; on the cost side, management expenses were -4.6% YoY to 20.138 In billion yuan, the management expense ratio was -0.73 pct to 48.1% year on year, and credit impairment losses recovered 0.477 billion yuan, increasing the profit margin by 0.514 billion yuan year over year.
The fee-related business boom was at a low point in the first three quarters, but the company's competitiveness continued to lead the industry. 1) Brokerage business. Market stock turnover in the first three quarters was -11.1% year-on-year, and the company's brokerage business was -8.7% year-on-year. It is expected that the decline in seat revenue under the new public offering transaction commission regulations and the decline in consignment sales are the main reasons for the decline in the company's brokerage business revenue. 2) Investment business. According to Wind Statistics, the IPOs, refinancing, and bond underwriting scales for the first three quarters were 7.3, 14.3, and 1448.8 billion yuan, respectively, -84.7%, -82.6%, and +4.1% year-on-year. Although investment bank revenue fell by 46.4% due to the phased tightening of equity financing, the company's stock and bond business strength remained at the top. 3) Asset management business. Despite continued market turbulence in the first three quarters, the company's asset management revenue remained resilient, with a year-on-year ratio of +1.1%. At the end of 1H2024, the company's private equity asset management market share was 13.23%, ranking first in the industry.
Investment revenue doubled year-on-year in the third quarter, and demand for credit services is still low. 1) Investment business. The company's investment income plus fair value change profit and loss ratio in the first three quarters was +34.0% to 21.83 billion yuan, of which the same three quarters were +125.4% to 9.88 billion yuan, the 2024Q3 Shanghai and Shenzhen 300/China Securities Full Bond Index was +16.07%/+1.24% respectively, and the 2023Q3 were -3.46%/+0.83% respectively. The stock and bond market performance was better than the same period last year. In particular, the A-share market is expected to strengthen rapidly in late September. The investment business related to the company's equity is expected to be released significantly Elasticity; as of the end of Q3, the financial asset position was 894.1 billion yuan, +24.9% year-on-year. 2) Credit business. At the end of the third quarter, the company's financing and purchase and resale of financial assets were 113.4 and 40.8 billion yuan, respectively, -0.3% and -0.6% year-on-year. According to the company's three-quarter report, the decrease in interest income from financing and the increase in interest expenses on sales and repurchases were the main reasons for the sharp decline in net interest income.
Investment advice: The company remains stable in its leading position on various business tracks. It continues to be optimistic about CITIC Securities's leading edge in building first-class investment banks. The company is expected to achieve net profit of 22.829, 28.414, and 30.44 billion yuan in 2024-2026, respectively, +15.8%, +24.5%, and +7.1% year-on-year respectively. The closing of the October 29th corresponds to the 2024 PB of 1.39 times, maintaining the “increase” rating.
Risk warning: risk of large fluctuations in the capital market; risk of a sharp decline in market transaction scale; risk of industry regulatory policies exceeding expectations and tightening
