3Q24 电池连接系统营收环比提速，毛利率或显著回升。我们估计公司3Q24 电池连接系统收入约4.6-4.7 亿元、环增35-40%，较2Q 收入增长明显提速，我们分析主要来自两方面驱动：1）公司1H 在头部电池客户推广超声波直焊和薄膜热压新方案、订单修复，3Q 新品订单逐步释放；2）3Q核心客户特斯拉新能源车销量复苏、储能延续高增长，以及增量客户欧洲大众、国内储能大客户订单持续放量。盈利方面，我们估计3Q24 公司电池连接系统毛利率约15-15.5%、环比提升约2-3ppt，我们分析毛利率改善主要受益于3Q 盈利性较好的新品和外资客户(如特斯拉、大众)占比提升。3Q24 results are basically in line with market expectations
The company announced 3Q24 results: revenue of 0.576 billion yuan, an increase of 15.1% and an increase of 28.9%; net profit to mother of 0.056 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.3% and an increase of 33.7%; after deducting non-net profit of 0.055 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.2% and a year-on-year increase of 31.0%. The company's 3Q24 results are basically in line with market expectations.
Development trends
3Q24 battery connection system revenue accelerated month-on-month, and gross margin may have rebounded significantly. We estimate that the company's 3Q24 battery connection system revenue is about 0.46-0.47 billion yuan, an increase of 35-40% compared to 2Q revenue growth. Our analysis is mainly driven by two aspects: 1) the company's 1H promotion of new ultrasonic direct welding and film hot pressing solutions, order repair, and the gradual release of new 3Q product orders; 2) the 3Q core customer Tesla NEV sales have recovered, energy storage continues to grow at a high rate, and incremental customers in Europe and major domestic energy storage customers continue to place orders. In terms of profit, we estimate that the gross margin of 3Q24's battery connection system was about 15-15.5%, an increase of about 2-3 ppt over the previous month. We analyzed that the gross margin improvement mainly benefited from the increase in 3Q's share of more profitable new products and foreign customers (such as Tesla and Volkswagen).
The 3Q24 revenue growth of electronic control busbars improved month-on-month, industrial electrical busbars were under pressure, and gross margin was rising steadily. In terms of electronic control busbars, we estimate that 3Q24 revenue may be close to 60 million yuan, an increase of 10-15% month-on-month, mainly due to strong sales volume from BYD, a major downstream customer; in terms of industrial electrical busbars, due to the decline in domestic manufacturing sentiment in 3Q24, we estimate that revenue declined month-on-month. In terms of profit level, we estimate that the gross margins of electronic control busbars and industrial busbars all showed a steady upward trend from month to month.
Fee control is good, and the management's second repurchase shows confidence in future development. The company's 3Q24 sales/management/finance/R&D expense ratio changed +0.1pp/ -0.2ppt year-on-year, respectively, and -0.1ppt/-0.3ppt, with month-on-month changes of -0.1pp/-0.4pp/+1pp/-1.2ppt, respectively. Overall cost control was good. In addition, in September 2024, the company announced that the chairman proposed formulating a plan to repurchase the company's shares for the second time using its own funds to cancel and reduce the registered capital, demonstrating the company's management's confidence and recognition of the company's value in the future, and further enhancing shareholders' interests.
Profit forecasting and valuation
Considering the pace of release of new product orders in 4Q24 or there is some uncertainty, we slightly lowered the company's 2024 profit forecast by 4% to 0.215 billion yuan, while keeping the 2025 profit forecast unchanged at 0.3 billion yuan, maintaining a target price of 35 yuan and outperforming the industry rating. The current stock price corresponds to 25.4x/18.2x P/E in 2024/2025, and the target price corresponds to 26.4x/18.9x P/E in 2024/2025, with 3.6% upward space.
risks
Global demand for new energy vehicles fell short of expectations, global demand for installed energy storage fell short of expectations, and increased market competition led to a decline in profits.
