煤炭业务：Q3 产销量同比双增，煤价下滑业绩承压? 2024 年前三季度商品煤产量为1567 万吨，同比减少6.43%；商品煤销量（不含内部自用）为1188 万吨，同比减少13.90%；吨煤价格为1115 元/吨，同比减少7.03%；吨煤成本为557 元/吨，同比减少10.80%；吨煤毛利润为558 元/吨，同比减少2.93%。Huaibei Mining released the 2024 three-quarter report on October 29, 2024:
In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 56.786 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.96%; net profit to mother of 4.139 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.17%; net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 4.081 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.51%; cash flow from operating activities was 7.789 billion yuan, up 4.74% year on year; and earnings per share were 1.58 yuan/share, a year-on-year decrease of 22.55%.
2024Q3 achieved operating income of 19.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.45% and a decrease of 2.42%; net profit to mother of 1.204 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.12% and a decrease of 10.52% month-on-month; net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 1.193 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.6% year-on-year and 9.74% month-on-month.
Coal business: Q3 production and sales double increased year on year, and the decline in coal prices put pressure on performance? Commercial coal production in the first three quarters of 2024 was 15.67 million tons, down 6.43% year on year; commercial coal sales volume (excluding internal use) was 11.88 million tons, down 13.90% year on year; ton coal price was 1,115 yuan/ton, down 7.03% year on year; ton coal cost was 557 yuan/ton, down 10.80% year on year; gross profit per ton of coal was 558 yuan/ton, down 2.93% year on year.
2024Q3 achieved commercial coal production of 5.6 million tons (YoY +3.30%, same month-on-month); commercial coal sales volume was 4.36 million tons (YoY +9.50%, month-on-month +1.20%): the price of a ton of coal was 929 yuan/ton (-9.40% YoY, -10.23% month-on-month):
The cost of a ton of coal was 477 yuan/ton (-6.69% YoY, -4.50% month-on-month); gross profit per ton of coal was 452 yuan/ton (-12.10% YoY, -15.58% month-on-month).
Coke business: Q3 production rose month-on-month, price declined month-on-month? Coke production in the first three quarters of 2024 was 2.65 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.76%; coke sales were 2.59 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.48%; the price of a ton of coke was 2030 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13.03% year-on-year.
2024Q3 achieved coke production of 0.95 million tons (-4.37% YoY, +16.11% month-on-month); coke sales volume was 0.89 million tonnes (-12.06% YoY, +5.67% month-on-month); tonne coke price was 1,843 yuan/ton (-8.38% YoY, -4.86% month-on-month).
Coal chemical business: The utilization rate of ethanol production capacity reached 98.67% in Q3.
Methanol production in the first three quarters of 2024 was 0.287 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 19.58%; methanol sales were 0.158 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 55.74%; the average methanol price was 2,170 yuan/ton, up 1.76% year on year.
2024Q3 produced 0.126 million tons of methanol (+16.08%, +80.69%), sold 0.0399 million tons of methanol (-62.07% YoY, +9.62% month-on-month), and the average methanol price was 2,152 yuan/ton (+6.25% YoY, -2.62% month-on-month).
2024Q3 ethanol production was 0.148 million tons. Based on 0.6 million tons/year production capacity, it was measured that the utilization rate of ethanol production capacity reached 98.67%, and production was basically achieved.
Profit forecast, valuation and investment rating: Considering the weak operation of coal prices, we revised our 2024-2026 profit forecast. We expect the company's 2024-2026 revenue to be 69.048, 71.524, and 73.337 billion yuan respectively (the original forecast values were 71.641, 74.196, and 76.029 billion yuan), and realized net profit to mother was 5.01, 5.393, and 5.679 billion yuan, respectively (the original forecast values were 5.803, 6.211, and 6.517) billion yuan). Earnings per share are 1.86, 2.00, and 2.11 yuan, respectively. The current stock price is 15.42 yuan, and the corresponding PE is 8.3X/7.7X/7.3X, respectively. Considering the integrated development of the company's coal chemical industry and the continuous increase in the added value of the industrial chain, we are optimistic about the company's long-term growth space and maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: The capacity utilization rate of newly put into operation fell short of expectations, the commissioning progress of coal chemical projects fell short of expectations, coal and chemical prices fell sharply, and capital expenditure exceeded expectations.
