电量压力有所缓解，营收降幅环比收窄。下半年以来，随着广东省供需关系的修复，省内火电发电量也有所改善，三季度广东省火电完成发电量1444 亿千瓦时，同比增长1.92%，但由于装机同样维持快速增长，因此从利用小时维度，三季度广东省全省火电利用小时数为1148 小时，同比下降50 小时。电价方面，由于2024 年广东电量电价及现货电价均延续回落趋势，因此公司电量电价均延续承压，三季度公司完成营业收入23.92 亿元，同比下降11.48%，但与二季度营收43.93%的同比降幅已经实现显著收窄。Description of the event
The company disclosed its 2024 three-quarter report: In the third quarter of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 2.392 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.48%, and realized net profit to mother of 0.226 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.70%.
Incident comments
Electricity pressure has eased somewhat, and the decline in revenue has narrowed month-on-month. Since the second half of the year, with the restoration of the supply and demand relationship in Guangdong Province, the province's thermal power generation capacity has also improved. In the third quarter, Guangdong's thermal power generation capacity was 144.4 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 1.92% over the previous year. However, due to the fact that installed capacity also maintained rapid growth, the number of hours used by thermal power in Guangdong Province in the third quarter was 1,148 hours, down 50 hours from the previous year. In terms of electricity prices, as electricity prices and spot electricity prices in Guangdong continued to decline in 2024, the company's electricity and electricity prices continued to be under pressure. In the third quarter, the company completed operating income of 2.392 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.48%, but the year-on-year decline of 43.93% in revenue in the second quarter has narrowed significantly.
The rising cost of coal prices continued to operate at a high level, and single-quarter results were under pressure year over year. The average Q5500 coal liquidation price for Q5500 power in the third quarter decreased by about 18.10 yuan/ton compared to the same period last year. However, when considering the power plant's coal inventory for about 20 days and estimated according to the reference period from mid-June to mid-September, the 2024 average rose by about 13.58 yuan/ton compared to 2023. Affected by the fact that coal prices were still rising year on year, the company's operating cost for the third quarter was 2.051 billion yuan, down only 7.73% year on year. The company's gross margin for the third quarter was 14.28%, down 3.48 percent year on year point. In addition, the company's investment income for the third quarter was 0.014 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 68.50%. The main reason is that the company has successively disposed of some of its foreign investment assets this year, and the decline in investment income also limited its performance in the third quarter to a certain extent. Under the influence of continuing operating pressure on the main business, the company achieved net profit of 0.226 billion yuan in the third quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 31.70%, but the decline was 13.83 percentage points higher than the decline in second-quarter results.
Generous dividends showed value, and Lu Feng expanded production to accelerate growth. The company's dividend rate in 2023 reached 73.47%. Based on the closing price on the dividend disclosure date, the company's dividend ratio reached 5.29%. Construction of the company's Lufeng Jiahuban Power Plant units #3 and #4 began on November 26, 2022. It is expected that they will be completed and put into operation in early 2025. After commissioning, the company's installed capacity will expand by 56.85%. Considering the high profitability of one million units, the company's profit center will reach another level at that time. At the same time, the current debt ratio of the company is only 43.95%, and the net operating cash flow in 2023 exceeds 2 billion yuan. Against the backdrop of the Lufeng Jiahuban Power Plant without significant capital expenditure, the company's excellent annual cash flow generation ability makes it possible to expect stable long-term dividends.
Investment advice: Although short-term performance is under pressure, as the company's new units are about to be completed and put into operation, we believe that the company will still have excellent investment value in the medium term. We expect the company's EPS to be 0.41 yuan, 0.54 yuan, and 0.73 yuan in 2024-2026, corresponding to PE of 11.79 times, 8.98 times, and 6.63 times, respectively, maintaining the company's “buy” rating.
Risk warning
1. There is a risk of deterioration in electricity supply and demand and policies;
2. There is an unseasonal risk in coal prices.
