油气净产量和实现油价大幅提高，业绩增幅远优于同期油价波动。2024 年单三季度，公司实现总净产量179.6 百万桶油当量，同比上升7.0%。2024 年前三季度，净产量达 542.1百万桶油当量，同比上升 8.5%，创同期历史新高。其中，中国净产量达 369.2 百万桶油当量，同比上升 6.8%，主要得益于渤中 19-6 和恩平 20-4 等油气田的产量贡献；海外净产量 172.9 百万桶油当量，同比上升 12.2%，主要得益于圭亚那 Payara 项目投产带来的产量增长。2024 前三季度布油均价为81.82 美元/桶，同比基本持平，但前三季度实现油价达到79.03 美元/桶，同比增加2.9%。单三季度，实现油价为76.41 美元/桶，同比下跌8.2%，亦低于同期布油均价跌幅（下跌8.4%）。最终2024 前三季度实现归母净利润1,166.59 亿元，同比增加19.47%，远优于同期国际油价波动。Description of the event
The company disclosed its 2024 three-quarter report. During the reporting period, the company achieved operating income of 326.024 billion yuan, an increase of 6.26% over the previous year; net profit to mother was 116.659 billion yuan, an increase of 19.47% over the previous year. Among them, the third quarter achieved operating income of 99.254 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.51%; net profit to mother was 36.928 billion yuan, an increase of 8.98% year-on-year.
Incident comments
Net oil and gas production and achieved a sharp increase in oil prices. The increase in performance was far superior to the fluctuation in oil prices during the same period. In the third quarter of 2024, the company achieved a total net output of 179.6 million barrels of oil equivalent, an increase of 7.0% over the previous year. In the first three quarters of 2024, net production reached 542.1 million barrels of oil equivalent, up 8.5% year on year, reaching a record high for the same period. Among them, China's net production reached 369.2 million barrels of oil equivalent, up 6.8% year on year, mainly due to production contributions from oil and gas fields such as Bozhong 19-6 and Enping 20-4; overseas net production was 172.9 million barrels of oil equivalent, up 12.2% year on year, mainly due to the increase in production brought about by the commissioning of the Payara project in Guyana. The average price of oil in the first three quarters of 2024 was 81.82 US dollars/barrel, which was basically the same as the previous year, but in the first three quarters, the price of oil reached 79.03 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 2.9% over the previous year. In the third quarter of a single year, the price of oil was 76.41 US dollars/barrel, down 8.2% year on year. It is also lower than the average price drop of crude oil during the same period (8.4% decrease). In the end, net profit due to mother was 116.659 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, an increase of 19.47% over the previous year, far superior to the fluctuations in international oil prices during the same period.
Cost reduction and efficiency continue to advance, and the main cost advantages of barrel oil are highlighted. The company controls costs throughout the exploration, development and production process, and actively promotes technological and management innovation. It has gradually established and consolidated its competitive cost advantage in the industry. The cost of barrel oil is far lower than that of comparable companies in the same industry. The main cost of barrel oil in the first three quarters of 2024 was US$28.14, down 0.81% year on year. Among them, operating costs were well controlled, mainly due to the combined impact of production growth and exchange rate changes, and the competitive cost advantage continued to consolidate.
Looking forward to the future, the oil price center is expected to operate at medium to high levels, and the company's production is growing steadily. Looking ahead, the oil price center is still expected to be above $70 per barrel against the backdrop of limited increases in US production combined with OPEC production cuts and price increases. CNOOC's net oil and gas production target for 2024-2026 is 700-720, 780-800, and 810-830 million barrels of oil equivalent. According to central calculations, the year-on-year growth rates are 4.7%, 11.3%, and 3.8%, respectively. If the actual growth rate forecast for the first three quarters of 2024 is expected to exceed expectations for the whole year.
Focus on shareholder returns, and valuations may continue to be repaired. The company has always attached importance to shareholder returns and has maintained dividends twice a year. The total dividend payout in 2023 is HK$1.25 per share, with a dividend ratio of about 44%, and a total dividend of about HK$59.5 billion. In the first half of 2024, in order to positively return shareholders, the company decided to pay an interim dividend of HK$0.74 per share (tax included) for 2024, a record high for the same period. Since this year, in the energy sector of central state-owned enterprises represented by three barrels of oil, stock prices and corporate valuations have increased markedly in the context of ensuring energy security and the transformation of new energy sources. However, in comparison with domestic non-state-owned enterprises in the same industry and overseas enterprises in the same industry, the current valuation is still relatively low. As the profitability gap between central state-owned enterprises represented by three barrels of oil gradually narrows, the valuations of leading central state-owned enterprises such as CNOOC still have significant prospects of improving, and valuations may continue to be repaired.
The company's 2024-2026EPS is estimated to be 3.02 yuan, 3.46 yuan, and 3.64 yuan, respectively. The PE corresponding to the closing price of October 28, 2024 was 9.06X, 7.92X, and 7.52X, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
1. The sharp drop in international oil prices;
2. Geopolitical risks.
