发电板块：24Q3 售电量环比大增33%，平均售电成本环降4.5%。1）电量：Net profit for 24Q3 was +11% YoY/+22% month-on-month. The company achieved revenue/net profit of 253.9/46.1 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 24 years, +0.6%/-4.5% year-on-year. Among them, in the Q3 single quarter, net profit was 16.6 billion yuan, +10.5%/+21.7% year over year, and the performance was outstanding.
Coal sector: Due to product structure improvements, the 24Q3 comprehensive sales price was +2%/+0.2% month-on-month, and the year-on-month decrease of -2.5% in cost far exceeded the guidelines at the beginning of the year. 1) Production and sales volume: 24. Self-produced coal production/sales volume of 0.2444/0.2449 billion tons in the first three quarters, of which 24Q3 production/sales volume was 81.2/82.1 million tons, -0.1%/-1.6% YoY, -0.9%/-0.5% month-on-month; Outsourced coal sales were 33.5 million tons, +7.4% YoY. The total sales volume in 24Q3 was 53.2%/32.4%, -15.5/+20.2pct year-on-year, and -8.4/+1.8pct month-on-month. In the year, Changxie accounted for 75% of its own coal production, or -19.6/-9.2pct month-on-month. 2) Selling Price:
24 The average sales price of coal in the first three quarters was 564 yuan/ton, -3.3% year over year, of which the average sales price in 24Q3 was 560 yuan/ton, +2.1% yoy/+0.2%, of which the average annual/monthly sales price was 496/691 yuan/ton, -3.3%/-14.3% yoy, +1.3%/-3.1% month-on-month. 3) Cost: The unit cost of self-produced coal in the first three quarters was 186.3 yuan/ton, -2.5% year-on-year, and the decline was greater than the year-on-year +10% guideline. Among them, the unit cost for 24Q3 was 175.4 yuan/ton, -9% month-on-month, mainly due to raw materials/labor costs -12.6%/-16.3% month-on-month. 4) Sector profit: The coal sector achieved revenue/gross profit of 201.3/58.9 billion yuan in the first three quarters, +0.6%/-3.3% year-on-year, of which 24Q3 achieved gross profit of 20.88 billion yuan, +15.9% month-on-month.
Power generation sector: In 24Q3, electricity sales increased 33% month-on-month, and the average electricity sales cost decreased by 4.5%. 1) Power:
24Q3 sold 64.1/60.4 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity, +14.4%/+14.9% year-on-year, a sharp increase of 31.6%/33.3% month-on-month, or benefiting from the weakening of hydropower since August. 2) Price and cost: 24Q3 company's comprehensive electricity sales price is 0.395 yuan/kilowatt-hour, -4.4% YoY/ -1.8%; average electricity sales cost is 0.346 yuan/kWh, +1%/-4.5% YoY. 3) Sector profit: The electricity sector achieved revenue/gross profit of 70.4/11.2 billion yuan in the first three quarters, +3.4%/-8.1% year-on-year, of which 24Q3 achieved gross profit of 4.1 billion yuan, +36.3% month-on-month.
Railway sector: The unit freight rate in 24Q3 was +3.6% month-on-month, and the sector's gross profit margin increased 5%. The 24Q3 self-owned railway turnover was 73.4 billion ton/km, -4.3%/-7.6% yoy/month-on-month; the unit freight rate was 0.139 yuan/ton/km, -1.6% yo/ +3.6% month-on-month. The railway sector achieved revenue/gross profit of 32.7/12.5 billion yuan in the first three quarters, -1%/-0.8% year-on-year, of which 24Q3 achieved gross profit of 4.11 billion yuan, +4.8% month-on-month.
Expense control is effective, and the comprehensive cost rate is -0.4 pct month-on-month. The 24Q3 comprehensive fee rate was -0.4 pct to 8.9% month-on-month, mainly due to a decrease in tax and additional and administrative expenses.
Profit forecasting and valuation. The company's coal industry accounts for a high share, and coal profit stability is strong. The new thermal power business is expected to continue to contribute to the increase, and the company continues to improve its core competitiveness and value creation capabilities as a central energy enterprise. The company's net profit is expected to reach 58.3/59.6/60.1 billion yuan in 24-26, and the corresponding EPS is 2.93/3.00/3.02 yuan. Furthermore, as a large domestic energy state-owned enterprise with leading ESG standards, the company is expected to enjoy a valuation premium with Chinese characteristics. Referring to comparable coal and power companies, the company will be given 15 to 16 times PE in 24 years, with a reasonable value range of 43.99 to 46.92 yuan, maintaining a “superior to the market” rating.
Risk warning. The price of thermal coal has dropped drastically, electricity prices have been drastically lowered, and environmental security checks are difficult to grasp.
