营收与盈利Q3 单季同比均有所增加。24Q1-3 公司实现营业收入122.7 亿元，同比-1.38%；Q3 单季营收45.1 亿元，同比+6.6%，较Q2 单季环比+2.7%；24Q1-3公司归母净利润48.8 亿元，同比+0.1%；Q3 单季归母净利润17.4 亿元，同比+35.5%，较Q2 单季环比-8.9%。公司前三季度自营/经纪/投行/资管/信用营收占比分别为48.8%/24.8%/5.3%/5.2%/6.6% ， 同比分别+9.4/-1.7/-3.5/+2.4/-5.5pct，收入结构方面较去年同期变动显著，自营贡献主要营收。Incidents:
On October 29, Guoxin Securities released its financial report for the third quarter of 2024. The company achieved revenue of 12.27 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 24, a year-on-year decrease of 1.38 percent; net profit to mother of 4.88 billion yuan, up 0.1% year on year; weighted average ROE of 4.74% for the first three quarters, down 0.26 pct from the same period last year; and basic earnings per share of 0.41 yuan/share.
Comment:
Both revenue and profit increased year-on-year in Q3. 24Q1-3 achieved operating income of 12.27 billion yuan, -1.38% year over year; Q3 revenue of 4.51 billion yuan, +6.6% YoY, +2.7% of Q2; net profit to mother of 24Q1-3 was 4.88 billion yuan, +0.1% YoY; Q3's net profit to mother was 1.74 billion yuan, +35.5% YoY, and -8.9% over Q2. The company's self-operated/broker/investment banking/asset management/credit revenue in the first three quarters accounted for 48.8%/24.8%/5.3%/5.2%/6.6%, respectively, +9.4/-3.5/+2.4/-5.5pct year-on-year, respectively. The revenue structure changed significantly compared to the same period last year, and self-employment contributed to the main revenue.
The brokerage business continued to be under pressure, with revenue from proprietary operations +22.3% year-on-year in the first three quarters. 24Q1-3, the average daily stock base trading volume of the A-share market was 921 billion yuan, -8.6%; 24Q1-3 company's net brokerage revenue was 3.04 billion yuan, -7.8% year-on-year, -14.4% in the Q3 quarter compared to the same period last year, and -13.9% month-on-month, or 0.91 billion yuan, mainly due to the decline in revenue from traditional businesses such as brokerage trading of securities in the A-share market. In terms of credit business, as of the end of September, the balance of the two loans in the city was 1.44 trillion yuan, -9.5%; 24Q1-3's net income from credit business interest was -46.4% of the same period last year. The Q3 single quarter was -38.4% compared to the same period last year, and +10.1% month-on-month compared to the Q2 single quarter, or 0.32 billion yuan, which was mainly affected by a significant increase in interest expenses on financial assets. In terms of self-operated business, since this year, bond market revenue has driven the company's 24Q1-3 self-operated business revenue +22.3% to 5.98 billion yuan, +93.0% compared to the same period last year in Q3 and +4.3% month-on-month, to 2.26 billion yuan. Self-operated business contributed the main revenue increase to the company's performance in the first three quarters. In the future, the company is expected to recover the performance of traditional businesses through the transformation and upgrading of the wealth management business.
Net revenue from the investment banking business was -41% year-on-year in the first three quarters, and revenue from the asset management business rebounded year on year. 24Q1-3, the number of IPOs and capital raised in the A-share market was 69 to 47.87 billion yuan, respectively, -73.9%/-85.2% year over year; the number of refinanciers and capital raised was 156 to 183.77 billion yuan, respectively, -60.5%/-72.1% year on year. The scale of market financing declined significantly year on year. Net income from 24Q1-3's investment banking business was affected by the slowdown in the A-share market IPO and refinancing pace. The Q3 single quarter was -31.8% compared to the same period last year, and +38% month-on-month, or 0.25 billion yuan. In the medium term, as registration system reform accelerates, the company seizes important opportunities for the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, deepens the local equity financing market in Shenzhen, and promotes the upgrading of “investment banking+” ecosystem services, which is expected to bring more room for growth to the company's investment banking business. The net revenue of 24Q1-3's asset management business was +81.6% year-on-year, +63.9% compared to the same period last year, and +3.4% month-on-month, or 0.24 billion yuan. The company's diversified asset management products and professional allocation strategies contributed to an increase in asset management business revenue. In the future, the company's asset management business will provide customers with high-quality services and continue to build brand influence through innovative strategies, specialized operations, and focus on investment and research.
Profit prediction and rating: As a local brokerage firm covering Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, the company continues to promote business innovation with new financial services and new business models, with diverse revenue sources and steady performance. In view of the current volatile A-share market, we predict that the company's net profit for 24-26 will be 65.18 (down 9.8%) /68.14 (down 15.8%) /7.206 billion yuan (new), EPS of 0.68/0.71/0.75 yuan, respectively. The PE valuation corresponding to the current stock price is 16.97/16.24/15.35 times, respectively, maintaining the “increase” rating.
Risk warning: The downward pressure on the economy is increasing; active capital market reforms fall short of expectations.
