24Q1~Q3 主产品价格基本稳定，POY 价差收窄。2024 年前三季度，公司POY/FDY/DTY 的不含税平均售价分别为6809/7714/8746 元/吨，同比分别变化-0.4%/+0.7%/+3.1%；短纤/PTA 不含税平均售价分别为6585/5067 元/吨，同比分别变化+1.2%/-1.8%。原料方面PTA/MEG 的不含税平均售价分别为5090/4010 元/吨，同比分别变化-2.3%/+11.7%。价差方面，产量份额最高的POY 价差为1069 元/吨，同比-6.0%；FDY 价差为1973 元/吨，同比+0.5%；DTY 价差为3006 元/吨，同比+7.8%。Event: On October 28, 2024, the company released its report for the third quarter of 2024. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 49.197 billion yuan, up 11.31% year on year; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 0.746 billion yuan, down 15.91% year on year; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non-recurring profit and loss was 0.637 billion yuan, down 13.60% year on year.
Net profit to mother declined in 24Q3 compared to the same period last year. In the third quarter of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 17.924 billion yuan, up 11.91% year on year and 6.56% month on month; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 0.141 billion yuan, down 65.41% year on year, down 57.23% month on month; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non-recurring profit and loss was 0.098 billion yuan, down 73.41% year on year and 68.23% month on month.
Production and sales of main products increased from 24Q1 to Q3. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved POY production/sales volume of 3.862/3.806 million tons, respectively; achieved FDY production/sales of 1.117/1.088 million tons, respectively, +7.4%/+4.4%; achieved DTY production/sales volume of 0.596/0.564 million tons, respectively, +9.3%/+3.7%; achieved short fiber production/sales volume of 0.95/0.93 million tons, respectively. +12.3%/+12.6% YoY; PTA production/sales volume of 0.342/0.337 million tons, respectively, was -3.7%/-6.9% YoY.
The price of the main product was basically stable from 24Q1 to Q3, and the POY price spread narrowed. In the first three quarters of 2024, the average sales price of the company's POY/FDY/DTY without tax was 6809/7714/8746 yuan/ton, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -0.4%/+0.7%/+3.1%; the average sales price of staple fiber/PTA without tax was 6585/5067 yuan/ton, respectively, with a year-on-year change of +1.2%/-1.8%. In terms of raw materials, the average sales price of PTA/MEG without tax was 5090/4010 yuan/ton, respectively, a year-on-year change of -2.3%/+11.7%. In terms of price spread, the POY price difference with the highest production share was 1,069 yuan/ton, -6.0% year on year; FDY price difference was 1973 yuan/ton, +0.5% year on year; and DTY price difference was 3006 yuan/ton, +7.8% year over year.
24Q3 sales of main products increased month-on-month, and prices declined month-on-month. In the third quarter of 2024, the company achieved POY production/sales of 1.271/1.479 million tons, respectively, -2.2%/+18.8% month-on-month; achieved FDY production/sales of 0.377/0.388 million tons, respectively, +1.1%/+4.3% month-on-month; and achieved DTY production/sales of 0.208/0.202 million tons, respectively, +6.0%/+5.2% YoY. The average sales price of POY/FDY/DTY without tax was 6690/7568/8699 yuan/ton, respectively, with a change of -3.2%/-2.7%/-1.3% from month to month, respectively.
Investment advice: We expect the company's net profit to be 0.952/1.244/1.488 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, and EPS of 0.62/0.82/0.98 yuan/share, respectively, corresponding to PE 18/14/12 times on October 29, 2024. Considering that the filament market is currently relatively weak, the rating was downgraded and a “careful recommendation” rating was given.
Risk warning: risk of fluctuations in raw material prices; risk of downstream demand falling short of expectations; risk of projects under construction falling short of expectations.
