Key points of investment

The Q3 results were generally in line with expectations. The company's 24Q1-3 revenue was 8.5 billion yuan, down 0.3%, net profit to mother was 0.27 billion yuan, down 7.5%, gross profit margin of 25.8%, +1.1 pct, net interest rate 3.1%, same decrease 0.2 pct; of these, 24Q3 revenue was 3.2 billion yuan, +3%/+13% year on month, net profit to mother 0.17 billion yuan, gross profit margin of 28.3%, -0.6/+4.1pct, net profit margin to mother 5.2%, +0.4/2.0pct YoY. If 60 million exchange losses are added back, operating profit exceeds 0.22 billion, and the performance is basically in line with expectations.

Q3 Consumer shipments reached a record high. The share of major North American customers rose to 10%, helping the net interest rate to rise to 10%.

According to our estimates, Q3 revenue was 2.9-3 billion yuan, accounting for 93%, of which 1.7-1.8 billion yuan for laptop computers and 0.9-1 billion yuan for mobile phones; Q1-3 shipped 0.27-0.28 billion yuan, an increase of 15%; Q3 shipped 0.105-0.11 billion, +19%/+20% year-on-year, and major North American customers shipped 10 million yuan, accounting for 10%, helping Q3 gross consumer margin rise to 30% +, net Interest rates rose to 10% +, contributing a total profit of 0.3 billion yuan; we expect to maintain 0.1-0.11 billion in Q4 shipments, 0.38 billion in 24, an increase of 15%, and an estimated contribution of 0.9-1 billion yuan in profit. Looking at 25 years, with the release of new products such as steel cases and special-shaped mobile phones, the company's share of high-quality overseas customers has increased, the AIPC battery capacity on computers has continued to increase, and the company's consumer profit level is expected to further increase.

The gross profit from the start-to-stop business was corrected, and the loss for the whole year is expected to be 0.4 billion yuan. According to our estimates, Q3 power revenue was 0.2-0.25 billion yuan, accounting for 7%, of which 0.3 million power supply units were shipped, doubling from month to month. We expect to ship 0.8 million units throughout the year, an increase of more than 10 times over the previous year, contributing 0.6 billion yuan in revenue. The company has been designated by Jaguar Land Rover, Stellantis, and German car companies, and is the ideal supplier and exclusive supplier to Xiaomi. It has further doubled in 25-26. In terms of profit, the company's Q3 momentum corresponds to a loss of 0.09 billion yuan (equity), with a slight decrease from month to month. Among them, the gross profit from the start-up and shutdown business changed. The 24-year dynamic forecast loss was 0.42 billion yuan (equity), reducing losses in 25, and is expected to balance the breakeven in '26.

Q3 Exchange losses of 60 million yuan, and operating cash flow increased. The company's expenses for the 24Q1-3 period were 2.1 billion yuan, an increase of 17%, an expense rate of 24.3%, and an increase of 3.6 pct, of which the Q3 period cost was 0.74 billion yuan, +3% month-on-month, including exchange losses of 60 million yuan, with an expense ratio of 23.3%, which was flat year-on-year, +0.2pct; 24Q1-3 net operating cash flow was 1.7 billion yuan, up 7% year-on-month, of which Q3 operating cash flow was 0.8 billion yuan, +21%/+277% year-on-month; 24Q1-3 capital expenditure was 1.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 25%, including Q3 capital expenditure of 0.6 billion yuan, -11%/-15% YoY; inventory at the end of 24Q3 was 1.9 billion yuan, down 5% from the beginning of the year.

Profit forecast and investment rating: We maintained the 24-26 net profit forecast of 0.52/0.92/1.43 billion yuan, an increase of 53%/75%/56%, corresponding PE of 38/22/14 times, maintaining a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: downstream demand is slowing, and new products fall short of expectations.