建议增持。2 024Q3地缘油价致油运市场经历压力测试，公司单季业绩同比再增超两成，再次展现优秀经营能力。预计未来成品油运高景气持续将超预期，公司将充分受益。维持2024-26 年净利预测21/24/25 亿元。建议增持，维持目标价7.37 元。Introduction to this report:
The oil transportation market experienced a stress test due to 2024Q3 geographical oil prices. The company's single-quarter performance still increased by more than 20% year-on-year, once again showing excellent operating capabilities. It is expected that the boom in the transportation of refined oil products will continue to exceed expectations in the future, and it is recommended to increase holdings.
Key points of investment:
An increase in holdings is recommended. The oil transportation market experienced a stress test due to geographical oil prices in 2,024Q3. The company's single-quarter performance increased by more than 20% year-on-year, once again showing excellent operating capabilities. It is expected that the boom in refined oil transportation will continue to exceed expectations in the future, and the company will fully benefit. Maintain the 2024-26 net profit forecast of 2.1/2.4/2.5 billion. It is recommended to increase holdings and maintain the target price of 7.37 yuan.
The 2024Q3 oil transportation market experienced a stress test, and the company's single-quarter performance increased by more than 20% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations. The utilization rate of refined oil transportation capacity in the first half of 2024 has exceeded the threshold, and the freight center and the company's profits have set new records. The oil transportation market experienced a stress test due to 2024Q3 geographical oil prices. Demand for refined oil products dropped slightly year-on-year, and some small crude oil tankers switched to transporting refined oil products, putting pressure on supply. The company's net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 was 1.66 billion yuan, an increase of 38% over the previous year.
Among them, the net profit for the 24Q3 quarter was 0.44 billion yuan, an increase of 21% over the previous year, exceeding our and market expectations. According to the Polish Stock Exchange Index, the 2024Q3 performance corresponds to the average MR TCE value of 0.024 million US dollars on the New Australian Line, which is basically the same as the previous year. Considering the year-on-year reduction in fleet size due to the elimination of old ships, it is speculated that Q3's operating efficiency surpassed the industry, once again showing excellent operating ability. 1) MR POOL expands and increases the scale effect of operations; 2) Slightly expands the market west of the Suez Canal; 3) Actively handles return goods to effectively increase the heavy load ratio; 4) Yearly small to medium term leases lock in high profits.
Global refineries continue to move eastward, increasing demand will absorb new supply, and the boom will continue to exceed expectations. The market is generally concerned about the pressure to deliver new finished tankers and the continuation of the high boom. We believe that the core is a lack of confidence in future demand growth. According to our global refined oil shipping trade statistics, it is estimated that demand for refined oil transportation in the first half of 2024 will increase by 24% compared to the same period in 2019. Among them, shipping volume increased by about 10%, and the average flight distance increased by about 13%. The reason behind this is that global refineries are moving eastward, developed countries such as Europe and Australia are gradually shutting down refineries, while Asian regions such as the Middle East and India are gradually adding new refineries, driving a significant increase in cross-regional trade in refined oil products. It is expected that the trend of refineries moving eastward will continue in the future, and demand growth will exceed expectations, which can absorb new ship deliveries.
At the same time, the shift in cross-regional trade in refined oil products from arbitrage to immediate demand will help open up freight space.
The company actively manages its market value, and shareholder returns continue to improve. In the past two years, the company has fully benefited from the rise in industry sentiment, and profits have repeatedly reached new highs, and actively improved shareholder returns through repurchases and cancellations. Recently, the company announced that the controlling shareholder plans to increase its shareholding by 1-1.72% of the company's shares, once again demonstrating active market value management and continued confidence in the high prosperity of the industry. Shareholder returns are expected to continue to improve in the future.
Risk warning. Economic fluctuations, geographical conditions, sanctions and environmental protection measures falling short of expectations.
