成本增加压制产品利润，Q3 毛利率环比下滑。2024 年三季度，公司主要装置检修时间略有延长，其中烟台MDI、TDI 等一体化装置检修约56 天，较去年同期增加约13 天；烟台PDH 装置检修约45 天，较去年同期增加约2 天。销量方面，得益于福建及宁波基地的稳定运行，聚氨酯及精细化学品产品销量实现环比增长， 24Q3 聚氨酯/石化/精细化学品及新材料销量环比分别+2%/-6%/+4%，销售均价环比分别+2%/+14%/-2%。原料端，24Q3 纯苯、煤炭、丙烷、丁烷均价同比分别+13%、-2%、+25%、+24%，除煤炭外，其余原料成本均出现明显上涨，压制产品价差。聚氨酯产品方面，受需求不振及下游成品库存高企影响，纯MDI 及TDI 价格均有下跌，24Q3 聚合MDI/纯MDI/TDI价差环比分别+6/-1%/-7%；石化产品方面，产品重心整体下移，三季度PDH价差环比下滑9%，下游产业链利润有所收窄；精细化工品及新材料板块产品价格相对较弱，其中TPU/PMMA/PC/HDI 均价环比分别-1%/+3%/-2%/-4%。Matters:
The company released its three-quarter report for 2024. In the first three quarters of 24, it achieved revenue of 147.604 billion yuan, +11.35%; realized net profit to mother of 11.093 billion yuan, -12.67% year over year; and realized net profit of 10.928 billion yuan without return to mother, or -12.07% year over year. Among them, single Q3 achieved revenue of 50.537 billion yuan, +12.48%/-0.73% year over year; realized net profit to mother of 2.919 billion yuan, -29.41%/-27.33% year over month, and realized net profit without return to mother 2.829 billion yuan, or -31.30%/-28.77% year over month.
Commentary:
Increased costs suppressed product profits, and Q3 gross margin declined month-on-month. In the third quarter of 2024, the maintenance period for the company's main installations was slightly extended. Among them, the maintenance of integrated devices such as MDI and TDI in Yantai was about 56 days, an increase of about 13 days over the same period last year; the maintenance of PDH installations in Yantai was about 45 days, an increase of about 2 days over the same period last year. In terms of sales, thanks to the stable operation of the Fujian and Ningbo bases, sales of polyurethane and fine chemical products achieved month-on-month growth. In 24Q3, sales of polyurethane/petrochemical/fine chemicals and new materials were +2%/-6%/+4% month-on-month, respectively, and the average sales price was +2%/+14%/-2% month-on-month respectively. On the raw material side, the average price of pure benzene, coal, propane, and butane in 24Q3 was +13%, -2%, +25%, and +24% year-on-year respectively. Except for coal, the cost of all other raw materials increased markedly, suppressing product price differences. In terms of polyurethane products, due to weak demand and high inventory of downstream finished products, pure MDI and TDI prices both fell, with 24Q3 polymer MDI/pure MDI/TDI spreads +6/ -1%/-7% month-on-month respectively; in terms of petrochemical products, the overall product focus moved downward. The PDH price spread fell 9% month-on-month in the third quarter, and downstream industry chain profits narrowed; product prices in the fine chemicals and new materials sector were relatively weak. Among them, TPU/PMMA/PC/HDI average prices were +1% month-on-month/-1% month-on-month/-2%/-4%
The 24Q3 company achieved gross margin/net margin of 13.40%/6.59%, respectively, -4.0/-3.7pct year over year, and -1.9/-2.1pct month-on-month respectively, mainly due to a significant increase in operating costs. The cost ratio was +0.4pct to 5.8% month-on-month during the 24Q3 period, mainly due to an increase in sales expenses.
The polyurethane industry is expected to continue to improve, and the company's MDI technology reform and capacity expansion are progressing steadily. Since 2024, overseas MDI demand has remained high, and overseas production capacity failures and force majeure incidents on the supply side are frequent, and production of many MDI devices around the world have also remained low. The scarcity of stable domestic MDI supply continues to be prominent. According to Baichuan, in the first nine months of 24, China's polymeric MDI export volume was 0.905 million tons, an increase of about 6% over the previous year; of these, the total export volume of Shandong, Zhejiang, and Fujian regions was 0.772 million tons, an increase of nearly 10% over the previous year. In the first half of '24, the company's MDI plant in Fujian Industrial Park completed technical upgrading and capacity expansion, and the total MDI production capacity was raised to 3.5 million tons/year; in October '24, the EIA announced the technical improvement and capacity expansion of the company's Fujian MDI installation, which will be expanded by 0.8 million tons to 1.5 million tons; combined with the Ningbo base's 0.6 million ton technical reform plan, the company's MDI production capacity is expected to further increase to 4.8 million tons/year. The global market share is expected to further increase to more than 40%. Since entering October, the MDI spread has been significantly repaired. Among them, the aggregate MDI/pure MDI/TDI spread was +12%/+3%/+3% compared to the average spread in the third quarter, respectively, and the polyurethane sector boom is expected to continue to improve.
By speeding up the transformation of ethane raw materials, profits in the petrochemical sector are expected to grow in the long term. Considering the cost differences in the traditional propane and naphtha routes to produce ethylene, the company is planning to transform the raw materials for the ethylene project. Among them, the 1.2 million ton ethylene phase II project is expected to be put into operation by the end of 24, using ethane+naphtha; diversified transformation of raw materials for the 1 million ton ethylene phase 1 project was initiated after the EIA announcement in August 24, and all propane will be switched to ethane feed in the future. At present, the company has simultaneously ordered 6 VLEC ethane carriers, and industrial chain support continues to improve. After the transformation of raw materials is completed, the company's profits in the petrochemical sector are expected to grow steadily.
Investment advice: Considering the slow pace of recovery in the current industry, we lowered the company's 24-26 net profit forecast of 15.301, 18.456, and 22.754 billion yuan respectively, corresponding EPS to 4.87, 5.88, and 7.25 yuan (previously 6.11, 6.79, and 7.41 yuan, respectively), and the current market value corresponds to the 24-26 PE to 16x, 14x, and 11x respectively. Considering that the company, as an industry leader, is expected to take the lead in benefiting from the recovery in industry demand and profit improvement, and that high-value-added products are expected to gradually land and open up room for future growth, we will give the company 15 times PE in 2025, corresponding to a 25-year target price of 88.2 yuan, maintaining a “strong push” rating.
Risk warning: Energy prices have changed drastically, downstream demand falls short of expectations, the commissioning progress of new projects falls short of expectations, and the risk of environmental policy changes.
