维持“增持”评级。维持 2024-2026 年 EPS 0.58/0.72/0.89 元，同比-23/+26/+23%，参考日辰股份、千味央厨、天味食品及立高食品给予公司2025 年22X PE，上调目标价至15.84 元（前值为14.36 元）。Introduction to this report:
Performance is in line with expectations, and vacant sales have improved markedly; looking forward to the medium to long term, driven by a recovery in catering demand and based on the company's category/channel expansion, we are optimistic about the company's excess revenue.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an “Overweight” rating. Maintain the 2024-2026 EPS 0.58/0.72/0.89 yuan, -23/+26/ +23% year over year. Refer to Richen Co., Ltd., Qianweiyang Chef, Tianwei Foods and Ligao Foods to give the company 22X PE in 2025, and raise the target price to 15.84 yuan (previous value was 14.36 yuan).
Performance was in line with expectations, and sales improved on an ad hoc basis. The company released its 2024 three-quarter report. During the reporting period, the company achieved operating income of 1.93 billion yuan, +9.72% year on year, realized net profit of 0.173 billion yuan, or -28.01% year on year, equivalent to achieving revenue of 0.657 billion yuan in a single quarter in Q3, +4.06% year over year, and achieved net profit of 0.065 billion yuan, or -13.45% year over year. Overall, the company's performance was in line with market expectations. By product, 2024Q3 single-quarter multiplexing/light cooking solutions/beverage and dessert ingredient revenue was +0.7%/+9.64%/-5.69%, respectively; revenue pressure on compound and dessert ingredients was mainly due to weak demand for food, and the high increase in light cooking solutions was mainly due to the rapid launch of new products and the launch of new B-side products; on the BC side, we expect small single-digit growth on the B-side in Q3. The idle recovery was mainly due to the release volume of new products/new channels. The company launched fast food pasta products based on its cost-effective positioning and Convenience attributes have enabled the expansion of the consumer base. On the other hand, new channels such as offline group purchases and convenience stores continued to expand (2024Q3 registered a net increase of 51 company dealers in a single quarter).
Profitability decreased slightly. The 2024Q3 company's gross margin in a single quarter was 31.28%, -1.06 pct year on year. The main reason for the decline was increased promotion/giveaway efforts; the net interest rate was 9.9%, -2pct year on year. In terms of period expenses, sales/management/R&D/finance expenses remained flat at +0.93 pct/-0.07pct/+0.15 pct/, respectively. The increase in sales expenses was also due to increased idle investment.
The main business is increasing its share at an accelerated pace, and it is hoped that it will become extremely popular in the short run. In the context of the steady expansion of Western restaurants, as Baoli's production capacity shortfalls are filled and R&D advantages are further highlighted, we are optimistic that the company will accelerate its share in the entire Western-style restaurant chain supply chain. At the same time, considering that in the context of the pasta industry adapting to the trend of healthy eating, the advantages of empty brand/channel are further highlighted, and we are optimistic about idle medium- to long-term excess revenue.
Risk warning: demand for food and beverage continues to weaken; food safety risks, etc.
