Incident: The company released its 2024 three-quarter report. In the first three quarters, the company achieved revenue of 2.5 billion yuan, net profit to mother of 0.342 billion yuan, -12% year-on-year, net profit of 0.336 billion yuan, year-on-year ratio -10%; in a single Q3, the company achieved revenue of 0.95 billion yuan, -6%/+27% year-on-month, and net profit of 0.123 billion yuan, net profit of 0.122. billion yuan, -11%/+17% YoY.
The sales volume of Tesla & New Force customers resonated, and the company's Q3 performance improved markedly from month to month. The company's main customers include SAIC Motor, Tesla, Ideal, NIO, Zero Run, etc., according to Marklines & SAIC Motor Group's announcement, Q3 SAIC achieved sales of 0.5 million vehicles, -44%/-16% year over month, which is the main reason for the year-on-year decline in the company's performance; Tesla/ Ideal/ NIO achieved sales volume of 25/0.15/0.062/0.084 million vehicles, supported by +21%/+41%/+8%/+57% month-on-month The company's performance improved month-on-month. In terms of profit, Q3 gross margin/ net margin was 21.6%/12.8%, respectively, -2.1/-0.9 pcts year over year, and -0.2/-1.0 pcts month over month. Among them, the decline in net interest rates was mainly due to increased preparation for falling inventory prices in a single quarter, leading to an increase in asset impairment losses of 0.01 billion yuan. In terms of expenses, the Q3 company's total sales & management & R&D & finance cost ratio was 6.2%, -0.5/-0.5pcts compared to the same period, and the cost ratio continued to be optimized during the period.
Integrated die-casting production capacity continues to expand, and the new business curve is about to expand. The company has a forward-looking layout of integrated die-casting. Currently, Yancheng Duoli 6100T & 9200T die-casting equipment and two 6100T die-casting equipment from Anhui Daya have been officially put into operation. In the future, it will mainly undertake integrated die-casting parts business for customers such as NIO. In addition, the company continues to increase production capacity in new businesses. The Changzhou Jintan auto parts and integrated chassis structural parts project is expected to add 8 integrated die-casting production lines and 5 stamping and welding production lines, which is expected to add 0.6 million pieces of integrated die casting per year and 10 million pieces of stamping welding parts after delivery. In September, the company signed an investment agreement with the Jinhua Development Zone Management Committee and is expected to invest 1 billion yuan to build an integrated automobile body structural parts project and plan to deploy die-casting production with an annual production capacity of 0.2 million sets line.
Investment suggestion: As a leader in domestic stamping parts, the company pioneered the transformation and layout of integrated die casting. In the future, it is expected to accelerate its growth into a white body assembly supplier with long-term technology accumulation and downstream customer advantages. In 2024-2026, the company's revenue is expected to be 4.1/5.2/6 billion yuan, +5%/+25%/+17% year over year, and net profit to mother of 0.51/0.64/0.76 billion yuan, +3%/+25%/+19% YoY, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: New business development falls short of expectations; customer sales fall short of expectations; risk of fluctuations in raw material prices.
