Q3 新签订单同比下滑，在手订单充足，现金流情况持续好转：截至2024Q3 末公司合同负债为27.41 亿元，同比-16%，存货为65.11 亿元，同比-5.5%。2024Q1-3 公司新签订单87.07 亿元（含税），同比-3.17%，其中Q3 新签订单24.22 亿元（含税），同比-24.6%。根据公司9 月披露的两笔单晶炉海外订单，公司Q3 签单中海外订单占比超50%，出海步伐明显加快。截至2024Q3 末，公司在手订单金额约134.34 亿元（含税），同比+16.99%。随着下游客户票据兑现，Q3 公司经营活动净现金流为4.21 亿元，同比+85%，环比+117%。Key points of investment
Q3 performance continued to grow, highlighting the resilience of leading players: in the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 6.921 billion yuan, +63.27% year over year; net profit to mother was 1.166 billion yuan, +36.91% year over year; net profit after deducting non-net profit was 1.152 billion yuan, or +39.36% year over year. The increase in performance is mainly due to the continuous acceptance of the company's on-hand orders. Q3 revenue for a single quarter was 2.504 billion yuan, +45.42% year over month; net profit to mother was 0.397 billion yuan, +20.58% year over year, -9.10% month on month; net profit after deducting non-net profit was 0.38 billion yuan, +17.11% year on year and -12.51% month on month.
Profitability declined, and cost control capacity continued to improve: gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 33.14%, year-on-year -3.57pct, net sales margin was 17.95%, year-on-year -2.25pct. We think the decline was mainly due to an increase in the share of inspections of some low-margin products. The net interest rate for the single crystal furnace subsidiary Songci Electromechanical in the first half of the year was about 16%; the cost ratio for the period was 8.87%, -3.79pct, with sales/management/R&D/finance expenses ratios of 1.56%/3.64%/0.42%, respectively. -1.61/-0.81/-1.37/ -0.00pct year-on-year. Q3 gross margin for the single quarter was 31.97%, -4.86pct year-on-month, -1.27pct; net sales margin was 17.54%, -2.30pct yoy, -0.56pct month-on-month.
New orders in Q3 declined year on year, there were sufficient orders on hand, and the cash flow situation continued to improve: as of 2024Q3, the company's contract debt was 2.741 billion yuan, -16% year over year, and inventory was 6.511 billion yuan, -5.5% year over year. 2024Q1-3 signed new orders of 8.707 billion yuan (tax included), -3.17% year over year, of which 2.422 billion yuan (tax included) were new orders in Q3, -24.6% year over year. According to the two overseas orders for single crystal furnaces disclosed by the company in September, overseas orders accounted for more than 50% of the company's Q3 orders, and the pace of overseas trips accelerated markedly. As of the end of 2024Q3, the company's current order amount was about 13.434 billion yuan (tax included), +16.99% compared to the same period last year. With the payment of downstream customer notes, Q3's net cash flow from operating activities was 0.421 billion yuan, +85% year over year and +117% month over month.
Growing into an automation platform company spanning photovoltaics & lithium batteries & semiconductors: (1) PV: a. Silicon wafers:
In 2023, the subsidiary Songci Electromechanical Low Oxygen Single Crystal Furnace has received major orders from Jingke and Tianhe, totaling 3.18 billion yuan. In September 2024, the company received a total of 1.3 billion yuan of overseas orders for monocrystalline furnaces; b. Batteries:
The subsidiary Xrui Technology is responsible for the entire screen printing line equipment, acquires Puller New Energy responsible for LPCVD coating equipment, and launches laser LEM equipment; c. Component: leading string welding machine with a market share of 70% + in sales, which is expected to benefit from 0BB iteration. (2) Semiconductors: Orders for bonding machines and AOI testing equipment increased significantly in half a year. The first batch of orders for the scriber was obtained, and a Japanese team was introduced to set up a joint venture to lay out CMP equipment. The monocrystalline furnace has already received orders from Korean customers. (3) Lithium battery: Currently, the main products are module pack lines for energy storage, and laminators are being developed.
Profit forecast and investment rating: With the acceleration of overseas expansion and smooth expansion into new fields, we expect the company's net profit to be 16.8 (original value 18.4) /18.9 (original value 23.5) /20.5 (original value 29.9) billion yuan in 2024-2026, corresponding PE of 11/10/9 times. Considering the company's low current valuation and high overseas & semiconductor business growth, we maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Downstream production expansion falls short of expectations, and R&D progress falls short of expectations.
