下调盈利预测和目标价，维持增持评级。公司公告2024年三季报，单季度业绩环比转亏，低于市场预期。我们下调2024-2026 年归母净利润为-2.33/0.35/3.45 亿元，对应EPS 为-0.070.010.10 元。考虑行业平均估值，给予2025 年4x PB，下调目标价至7.44 元（前值为7.56 元），维持增持评级。Introduction to this report:
Profit forecasts and target prices were lowered, and the rating for increasing holdings was maintained; performance fell short of expectations, and operating pressure continued; G60 was launched intensively, and Guangdong commercial space policy was introduced.
Key points of investment:
The profit forecast and target price were lowered, and the holdings increase rating was maintained. The company announced the 2024 three-quarter report. The single-quarter results turned into month-on-month losses, which were lower than market expectations. We reduced 2024-2026 net profit to -0.233/0.035/0.345 billion yuan, and the corresponding EPS was -0.07\ 0.01\ 0.10 yuan. Considering the average valuation of the industry, 4x PB was given in 2025, the target price was lowered to 7.44 yuan (previous value was 7.56 yuan), and the increase in holdings rating was maintained.
Performance falls short of expectations, and operations are under pressure or continuing. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.146 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.50%; net profit loss to mother was 0.17 billion yuan. Considering only the Q3 quarter, the company achieved revenue of 1.154 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 37.15%, and a loss of 0.108 billion yuan in a single quarter, turning a month-on-month loss. We believe that revenue pressure is mainly due to the reduction and slowdown in operators' capital expenditure. Against this backdrop, the company's gross margin also fell 8 points month-on-month to 18.55% in a single quarter. In the context of downstream operators' overall capital expenditure contraction, we believe that operating pressure may continue in the short term.
G60 intensive launch, Guangdong commercial space policy launched. From August to October 2024, G60 will be launched several times. It is expected that 108 stars will be launched this year, and the deployment of the first phase of 1,296 satellites will be completed by 2027. On October 21, 2024, the Guangdong Provincial People's Government issued the “Guangdong Provincial Action Plan to Promote High-Quality Development of Commercial Aerospace (2024-2028)”, which proposes that by 2026, Guangdong's commercial aerospace and related industries should reach 300 billion yuan. Guangzhou and Shenzhen will build a full-coverage industrial chain from rockets, satellites, ground stations, and terminal equipment to applications; Zhuhai and other places will focus on promoting the development of characteristic industrial clusters such as terminal equipment manufacturing, satellite operation, and satellite applications; support Yangjiang's construction of a commercial aerospace industrial park, focusing on Starlight Assembly Development of characteristic industrial clusters such as manufacturing, satellite applications, space science popularization, and aerospace cultural tourism. We believe that the recent policy issued by Guangdong and the intensive launch of the G60 Thousand Sails constellation are expected to accelerate the development of industrial ecosystems such as satellite interconnection and commercial aerospace, and bring development opportunities to the company's related businesses.
Catalysts: Intensive launch of domestic constellations, introduction of local policies;
Risk warning: Industry development falls short of expectations
